Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 202350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202349
MIZ000-210115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected...Central Michigan and far northern Indiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...
Valid 202349Z - 210115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
continues.
SUMMARY...A bowing line segment or two capable of producing severe
wind gusts near 60-70 mph remains possible across central MI.
Further south into Lower MI, a few thunderstorms could produce
marginally severe hail around 0.75 to 1.25" in diameter.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms associated with an MCV
moving east across central MI and northern IN is expected to
maintain localized intensity through this evening. Although buoyancy
across central MI is fairly limited and convective inhibition will
continue to increase through nightfall, easterly surface flow
downstream should continue to support a relatively balanced
convergence zone. In addition, low-level shear vectors orthogonal to
the line and magnitudes east of the MCV`s center point may be
favorable for a mesovortex or two. However, LCLs downstream of the
line become increasingly unfavorable for tornadogenesis.
..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/20/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43638557 44158539 44128496 44168434 43818408 43408416
43288411 42738431 42548436 42168465 42158619 42558595
43638557