354
ACUS11 KWNS 210704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210704
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-210900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...southern and eastern Nebraska...north-central
Kansas...and into parts of western Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

Valid 210704Z - 210900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue in/near WW 274.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows widespread convection across
eastern Nebraska and eastward into western and central Iowa.  While
a relatively favorable thermodynamic environment is in place, rather
paltry shear is indicated, with only 20 to 30 kt flow through most
of the troposphere, per model output and confirmed via KDMX WSR-88d
VWP.  With this area to remain east of the low-level jet, and
associated enhancement to the wind profile thereby provided, expect
only isolated risk for marginal hail/wind with the strongest
multicell storms.

Greater severe potential is expected to evolve across southwestern
portions of the watch over the next 1 to 2 hours, as a bowing
cluster of storms with a fairly well-developed cold pool moves
eastward across southwestern Nebraska/northwestern Kansas.  The
convection is progressing eastward near and just north of the
surface front, within the surface-based CAPE gradient.  With the MCS
roughly co-located with the nose of a 60-kt southerly low-level jet,
a much more favorably sheared environment should sustain this
convection -- and attendant, more substantial severe potential, over
the next few hours.

..Goss.. 05/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41340010 41889822 42519580 41719507 40989534 40739667
            39660003 41340010