Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 082038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082038
KSZ000-COZ000-082245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024
Areas affected...a small portion of eastern Colorado and western
Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...
Valid 082038Z - 082245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.
SUMMARY...A significant severe wind swath possibly beginning around
2230 UTC and spreading east-southeast through 01 UTC into far
western KS is forecast. Peak gusts within the evolving severe
linear cluster of storms are expected to range from 75-90 mph.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a moist axis
extending westward from western KS into eastern CO near the I-70
corridor. Burlington, CO ASOS (KITR) shows temperatures have warmed
into the lower 80s with a lower 60s dewpoint. Modifying the 19 UTC
model RAP model run valid for 20 UTC at the nearest forecast
sounding location (Goodland, KS) for the Burlington, CO observed
surface conditions, yields around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Furthermore,
the wind profile shows an elongated but "m-shaped" hodograph which
will favor precipitation seeding with initially cellular storms
currently located north through southwest of the Limon, CO vicinity
as of 2030 UTC. As this storm activity moves into a slightly more
moist airmass and cold pool development matures, expecting an
evolution into a more linear storm mode and increasing severe-gust
potential. Several recent time-lagged HRRR model runs support the
notion of this corridor being the most favorable for severe gusts.
Steep lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts, coupled with
more than adequate mid-level westerly flow, will support severe
gusts potentially peaking in the 75-90 mph range during the
2230-0100 UTC period.
..Smith.. 06/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39520126 39190111 38820119 38510143 38410182 38850306
39070310 39380299 39710271 39810227 39520126