Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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087
ACUS11 KWNS 231411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231411
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-231615-
Mesoscale Discussion 0908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Areas affected...Southern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231411Z - 231615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms associated with an MCV will be capable of wind
damage. A watch is not currently expected, but convective trends
will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Convection associated with an MCV has produced
occasional wind damage in eastern Pennsylvania into far southeastern
New York and parts of the NYC metro. Large hail was also reported
with a stronger cell in Westchester County. VAD data from local
radars/profilers do not suggest a strong rear-inflow jet with the
primary linear segment moving across Long Island. Temperatures and
dewpoints ahead of this activity are cooler/drier than in northern
New Jersey/NYC metro. However, forcing from the MCV may allow
convection to continue roughly along the southern New England coast
this morning. Weak lapse rates and buoyancy should keep the threat
marginal, but occasional strong wind gusts capable of wind damage
are possible. A watch is not expected, but trends will continue to
be monitored this morning.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...
LAT...LON 41067426 41667248 42027082 42047002 41596977 40877113
40207321 39707424 41067426