752
ACUS11 KWNS 130123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130123
WIZ000-MNZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Minnesota into far
northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

Valid 130123Z - 130230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, locally damaging gusts, and a
tornado or two will continue across parts of east-central Minnesota
into far northwestern Wisconsin for the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH indicates an
east/west-oriented band of semi-discrete supercells across Aitkin
and Pine Counties in east-central MN -- generally focused along an
antecedent outflow boundary. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints immediately
south of the boundary should continue to provide moderately unstable
inflow for these storms, while around 200 m2/s2 0-500m SRH favors
persistent low/midlevel mesocyclones. Given the favorable
environment and semi-discrete updrafts, these storms will have the
best chance of producing a tornado or two and isolated large hail in
the near-term.

Farther south (just north of the Minneapolis metro area), locally
damaging gusts and isolated large hail could accompany a loosely
organized band of storms, and a brief tornado cannot be entirely
ruled out owing to the aforementioned favorable low-level SRH.
However, these storms are impinging on increased MLCINH owing to
cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints compared to
areas north.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46479373 46569319 46529202 46249159 45799159 45509197
            45349238 45289303 45339402 45499437 45679436 45939406
            46159395 46479373