Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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296 ACUS11 KWNS 090237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090237 MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090400- Mesoscale Discussion 1210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Southern Missouri Region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399... Valid 090237Z - 090400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399 continues. SUMMARY...Convection will continue to develop and spread southeast this evening. Large hail is the greatest concern. New severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted soon across southeast Kansas. DISCUSSION...Southwesterly low-level inflow (1km AGL) is gradually increasing across northeast OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Scattered convection continues to increase along the northwest flank of the southern MO convection. Latest IR data suggests some thickening of mid-level convection over southeast KS but this activity has yet to deepen enough for lightning. 00z sounding from SGF was quite unstable with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, very steep lapse rates, and high PW values. Latest thinking is new updrafts will continue to evolve across the western portions of ww399 then propagate southeast toward the MO/AR border. There is increasing confidence this northwest-southeast oriented corridor of convection may oscillate across this portion of the watch given expected new development over southeast KS/southwest MO. New severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for portions of southeast KS. ..Darrow.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 38549480 37779021 36179019 36969482 38549480