298
ACUS11 KWNS 121934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121934
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-122130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Missouri River Valley into
southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121934Z - 122130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm redevelopment and/or intensification appears
possible heading into the late afternoon and evening hours across
eastern South Dakota/Nebraska into southern Minnesota/northern Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin. Trends will be monitored for the need for
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues to develop along and east
of the MO River Valley within a zone of weak isentropic ascent and
along convective outflow boundaries. Over the past few hours, this
activity has largely remained below severe limits with only
occasional strong updraft pulses based on echo top data and GOES IR
cloud top temperatures. However, forcing for ascent and deep-layer
wind shear are both expected to increase in the coming hours as the
primary synoptic mid-level wave crosses the northern Plains. As this
occurs, convection may become better organized and intensify,
especially within the MO River Valley where a buoyant, less
contaminated warm sector is in place. To the east across MN/IA/WI,
gradual destabilization continues amid filtered diurnal warming and
modest moisture return, but storms may outpace the eastward rate of
destabilization and/or be undercut by outflows. Latest high-res
guidance also shows a mixed signal regarding the potential for
re-intensification through late afternoon/early evening, but trends
will be monitored and watch issuance may be needed if sufficient
intensification appears likely.

..Moore/Goss.. 06/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   44779541 44529478 44379438 44209389 44169325 44149272
            44149205 44139147 44049096 43919064 43789042 43509027
            43239029 42989038 42799069 42709125 42639199 42649255
            42579311 42379354 42049382 41789403 41459459 41329480
            41269510 41269541 41279572 41399604 41519626 42229687
            42699731 43019766 43329790 43749822 44229833 44539828
            44899810 45039787 45169749 45169711 45119673 45049637
            44779541