Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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635
ACUS11 KWNS 212318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212318
WIZ000-220045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Areas affected...Central Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 212318Z - 220045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging wind threat will increase across
portions of central WI as a line of thunderstorms, with embedded
supercells, continues to rapidly move northeastward out of IA
through this evening.
DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extending from far
southeastern MN through east central IA, and additional new
thunderstorm development ahead of it, will continue to move into a
favorable low-level shear tornadic environment across central WI
characterized by 50 kt of 0-1 km shear. Although recent visible
satellite imagery and mesoanalysis indicates this downstream region
is more convectively inhibited, strong forcing via a mid level
shortwave trough and cold front will likely overcome it. An initial
threat of discrete supercells will be possible early this evening,
with upscale growth into a line expected late tonight. Even so, any
bowing line segments lifting north-northeastward within it will
become more favorably oriented with the low-level shear vector
(orthogonal), presenting an opportunity for embedded mesovortices
and damaging winds.
..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 44569208 44889238 45129244 45539199 45679140 45679078
45519020 45298967 44988893 44748815 44718809 44318796
43808803 43558806 43578855 43648970 43669023 43769067
43979095 44569122 44569208