Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 242319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242319
ILZ000-MOZ000-250115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into western Illinois
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...
Valid 242319Z - 250115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to shift into southern
portions of WW 302 - primarily across eastern Missouri and western
Illinois - over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A consolidated outflow boundary has become evident
within a cluster of semi-discrete supercells north of the St. Louis
area. MRMS data (supported by recent hail reports) indicate that the
more intense updrafts are associated with this boundary. Easterly
cell motions combined with steady 15-20 mph southerly inflow winds
are resulting in a slow southward development of this boundary,
which should act as a focus for additional thunderstorm development
over the next couple of hours. Areas west/northwest of the St. Louis
metro area may see an increase in thunderstorm coverage and
intensity over the next couple of hours as forcing for ascent along
the outflow, as well as along an approaching cold front, impinge on
the northern fringe of a strong buoyancy axis (MLCAPE upwards of
2500-3000 J/kg). Supportive kinematics should remain in place
through late evening, which will continue to support the potential
for embedded supercells along/behind the boundary with an attendant
large hail risk (most likely between 1.0 to 1.75 inches in diameter)
for the next 1-2 hours. Eventually, increasing forcing along the
cold pool/front should favor upscale growth into a
south/southeastward moving cluster down the buoyancy axis with an
increasing wind threat.
..Moore.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 37819159 38189191 38469216 38759227 39059225 39389179
39689143 39909117 39989099 39849067 39639050 39559022
39518983 39548946 39638912 39688889 39478843 39238829
39028835 38828852 38678890 38548927 38388948 38158966
37838965 37668967 37438983 37358997 37269033 37309066
37589127 37819159