343
FXUS64 KMEG 010408
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1108 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

9PM radar imagery depicts mostly stratiform rain pushing into the
Mid-South with the closest thunderstorm situated over Little
Rock, Arkansas. The main concern overnight will be flooding as
rainfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours.
Storm total rainfall will range from 1-3 inches with areas west of
the Mississippi River forecast to see the highest precipitation
amounts through Saturday morning. This may further aggravate
elevated rivers and streams, resulting in a few instances of flash
flooding.

Overall, the severe weather threat overnight will remain minimal
due to a lack of instability across the Mid-South. Instead, be
prepared for heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding in the
morning.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A wet and unsettled pattern will persist over the next 5 days or
so. A large upper level disturbance will move across the region
through Saturday evening. This will lead to a few waves of showers
and thunderstorms moving through the Mid-South. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds will be the main threats. Less organized showers
and thunderstorms will persist Sunday through early next week as
we remain warm and humid. Dry conditions look to return to the
Mid- South late next week behind a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A tropical-like day across the Mid-South this afternoon. The
latest KNQA radar sweep reveals a band of light stratiform
showers moving north across Mississippi and west Tennessee at this
hour. No thunder has been noted, but scattered thunderstorms have
developed over central Arkansas. The aforementioned activity is
expected to slowly drift east into the Mid-South later this
afternoon and persist through the overnight hours as the main
shortwave slowly moves east. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
accompany this activity. In fact, HREF guidance suggests that 2
to 4 inches of rainfall may fall along and west of the Mississippi
River through Saturday morning. A few instances of flash flooding
are possible in the aforementioned areas as multiple bands rotate
around the upper level low.

The majority of rain will come to an end Saturday evening as the
main shortwave departs to our east and heights build in behind the
exiting system. Nearly zonal flow will set up across the region
Sunday through early next week. Several perturbations will
translate through the westerlies with at least scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible each day. There is also the possibility
of a couple of MCSs or MCVs moving through the region at some
point through next Wednesday. Timing of thunderstorms and key
features remains nebulous at best, as steering flow will be rather
weak around 20 knots. Nonetheless, cloud cover and thunderstorms
will keep temperatures from climbing too high during this
timeframe.

Synoptic models are in good agreement with a large upper low
descending down across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley towards the end of next week. This will help push a cold
front through the region and bring the return of dry conditions
and lower humidity through the end of the week. The Mid-South
looks to remain in northwest flow in the long term as the main
upper low stalls over the Quebec.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A slow moving upper level low will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms for much of the upcoming TAF period, especially at
TUP and MKL. Prevailing winds will remain southerly generally
10-15kts with gusts in the 15-20kt range. IFR cigs overnight
should slowly improve mid to late morning. Short term guidance
has convection shifting east of the MEM airspace during the late
afternoon hours, but confidence is not high in this solution.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS