Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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150 FXUS64 KMEG 292100 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Mainly dry and cool conditions will persist on Thursday and much of Friday. A low pressure system will move across the region late Friday into Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Unsettled weather will persist Sunday through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A comfortably warm and dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. The latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary front just south of the Tennessee and Mississippi stateline. The latest visible satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus along this boundary, where a few showers or thunderstorms may form over the next hour or so. North of the boundary, dewpoint temperatures have mixed down into the mid to upper 50s. A couple of locations have over north Mississippi are reporting relative humidity at or below 30 percent. The aforementioned front will push a bit further south tonight, aided by weak northwest flow aloft. Thursday will be a bit cooler than today as we see a bit more high cloud cover tomorrow. Nonetheless, a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Expect highs in the lower 80s areawide. The ridge of high pressure to our west will deamplify on Thursday and allow a series of weak perturbations to translate through the region over the next 5 days or so. One notable shortwave will deepen and shift into the Mid-South late Friday. Return flow ahead of the wave will be rather weak, but there will be some instability that develops across our far southwestern counties during the day. A low end wind and hail appears possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Unsettled weather will persist Sunday into at least the middle part of next week as a series of weak perturbations translate through zonal flow. Synoptic models are not in good agreement in the long term, so leaned heavily on the NBM to produce mainly 30 to 50 PoPs each day and below normal temperatures. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as a weak and dry cold front dives south across the airspace. Late this evening and in the overnight period, a few scattered showers and/or isolated thunderstorms may surge up from the MS Delta region, but confidence in reaching any of the terminals was too low to mention any precip in the TAFs. Most convection, if any, will likely stay south of MEM and west of TUP. Winds will gradually shift around to the east and eventually settle around 7-9 kts by Thursday morning. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD