164
FXUS64 KMEG 302101
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
401 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Wet and unsettled weather will begin on Friday as a convective
complex of storms moves into the area. A few strong to severe
storms are possible with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and the
potential for a tornado or two. Rain chances will remain high
through Saturday as a cold front moves across the area. Medium
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day
through the middle of next week as a series of upper level
disturbances move through the region. Temperatures will remain
near normal with highs in the 80s each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A beautiful late spring across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in
the low to mid 80s with sunny skies and low humidity. The airmass
will undergo a significant change over the next 12-24 hours as a
plume of rich moisture moves into the region. For context, PWATs
are one standard deviation below normal for this time of year and
will surge to 1.5 standard deviations by tomorrow afternoon. The
marked increase in moisture will yield the potential for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will become a threat for areas along
and west of the Mississippi River through Saturday as multiple
rounds of rainfall occur. HRRR guidance suggests 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall with isolated higher amounts is possible over southeast
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi through Friday afternoon.
HREF guidance is much less bullish on precipitation total, so
uncertainty remains too high to pull the trigger on a flash flood
watch at this time.

The main feature to watch tomorrow morning through Friday evening
will be a MCV that is expected to track slowly across central
Arkansas late tonight through Friday afternoon. As moisture surges
ahead of this mesoscale feature tomorrow, SBCAPE values could
climb to around 2000 J/kg in eastern Arkansas with up to 1000
J/kg into west Tennessee. With up to 35 knots of bulk shear, a few
mini supercells could develop by mid afternoon and could pose an
all-hazards risk. A Slight Risk remains in effect for areas west
of a north to south line from Blytheville, Arkansas to Bartlett,
Tennessee to Oxford, Mississippi.

A deepening positively-tilted shortwave will translate east
through central Arkansas with a weak surface low developing over
SEMO by Saturday morning. At the surface, an increasingly unstable
airmass will develop by Saturday morning and afternoon ahead of a
cold front. The ECMWF depicts the shortwave taking on a negative
tilt, which could push a QLCS through the region Saturday morning
or afternoon. The limiting factor for a higher end severe threat
will likely be the ongoing convection across the area Saturday
morning. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk is in effect for severe
thunderstorms across the entire area. As hi-res model guidance
becomes available, a Slight Risk could be added as the convective
mode may become more clear. The cold front will push through the
region late Saturday night, briefly ending showers and
thunderstorms across the region.

Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through the long term
forecast as a series of weak shortwaves translate through nearly
zonal flow aloft. This will keep a medium chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day through midweek. With the
increased clouds and showers across the region, temperatures
should remain near normal with highs in the mid 80s and lows in
the mid to upper 60s each day. A more organized system looks to
arrive by mid to late week as a large trough digs down across the
entire Mississippi Valley a pushes a cold front through the
region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period,
although mid to high level ceilings will likely stick around
through tomorrow afternoon. A surge of precip is expected to move
up through the MS Delta starting tomorrow morning shortly after
sunrise, reaching MEM by 13Z. It is unclear how widespread the
rain shield will actually be with the initial onset, but kept
prevailing SHRA for now after looking at several point soundings
and finding very little instability until at least 21Z. Coverage
of precip looks to become more sporadic in the afternoon but picks
back up at the very end of this TAF period after 00Z Saturday.
East/southeasterly winds 8-10 kts look fairly persistent.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CAD