198
FXUS64 KMEG 040347
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1047 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The severe weather threat has diminished for the Mid-South.
However, showers and sub-severe thunderstorms will continue across
the region through the overnight hours. The main concern will be
heavy rainfall as precipitable water values approach the 99th
percentile. Additional rains will aggravate elevated rivers and
streams, resulting in flooding concerns.

Precipitation chances will remain elevated throughout Wednesday as
several disturbances trek across the Mid-South. Overall, the
severe weather threat will be low Wednesday due to lack luster
shear values.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Warm and humid conditions will continue through mid-week. Several
upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast through Wednesday. There exists a potential for
strong to severe thunderstorm development now through Tuesday
evening with primary threats of damaging winds and heavy rainfall. A
cold front will move through Thursday decreasing our rain chances
and cooling temperatures slightly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The Mid-South will remain under quasi-zonal flow through Wednesday
as an unsettled weather pattern continues over the area. Upper level
water vapor imagery currently denotes two shortwaves: one over
northeast Mississippi and the other over northeast Arkansas. NQA
radar indicated thunderstorms continue to spread northeast over
the Mid-South along the aforementioned shortwaves. Current PWATS
are around 1.8", nearing the 90th percentile, leading to a
possible localized flooding risk as convection moves across the
area this afternoon and into evening. A damaging wind, sub-severe
hail, and a brief spin up tornado also remains possible along
continued pop-up convection development as we move through today`s
end. Current surface-based CAPE values are around 2500-3000 J/kg
with about 25 kts of 0-6 km Bulk wind shear and significant
tornado parameter of <1. Though severe parameters support
development through the afternoon hours, with a high CAPE, low
shear environment, once the sun goes down, ie we lose daytime
heating, severe potential will likely decrease. Current
temperatures are in the lower 70s to upper 80s with gusty winds at
the surface. A stratocumulus deck continues to spread across the
Mid-South, limiting today`s high temperatures.

Tomorrow morning, an upper trough will churn in from the west and
center over the Arkansas and Missouri border giving continued lift
for shower and thunderstorm movement across the Mid-South. Several
shortwaves will also eject from this upper trough leading to
potential strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into
evening. Forecast surface based CAPE value are around 1000-2000 J/kg
with about 25-30 kts of 0-6 Bulk wind shear along and south of the I-
40 corridor. PWATs will along remain around the 90th percentile at
upwards of 2" and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Bottom line,
there exists a conditional chance for severe weather tomorrow
afternoon into evening with primary threats of damaging winds,
sub-severe hail, and localized flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday
along continued ejecting shortwaves ahead of a weak cold frontal
movement Thursday. Surging PWATs near the 90th percentile and
ample moisture availability will continue with a moist airmass
ahead of the aforementioned front through Wednesday. A localized
flooding risk may exist in areas along and west of the Mississippi
River Wednesday given efficient rainfall producers and forecast
QPF values of up to 3" now through Wednesday. As a cold front
moves through Thursday afternoon, precipitation chances and
relative humidity values will decrease. Surface high pressure and
northwest flow will move in behind this leading cold front
resulting in a more pleasant end to our week and start to our
weekend. NBM continues to carry slight chance PoPs early next week
as an upper low may form and give lift to precipitation
development.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Very low confidence forecast this TAF cycle. A few light showers may
impact the MEM and JBR over the next 2-3 hours. By 08 or 09Z
there should be a bit of a break for the remainder of the night
with additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Timing is
highly questionable, but likely diurnally driven and enhanced.
South winds around 5kts tonight and tomorrow night, 6-12kts
tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS