Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
094 FXUS64 KMEG 290818 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Following areas of early morning patchy fog, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to upper 80s today. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to occur across portions of eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi later today. A cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Mid-South starting on Thursday with a gradual warming trend on Sunday. An unsettled weather pattern should bring increasing rain chances to the region starting late this week and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas of patchy fog may occur tonight and into the early morning hours, as temperatures continue to radiate under calm winds and clear skies. High temperatures today will range from the low to upper 80s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover should begin to increase from the west later today, as mid-level disturbance moves toward the Mid-South. This feature is expected to bring increasing precipitation chances to portions of eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the Mid-South through at least Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend on Sunday. An unsettled weather pattern is still forecast to affect the Mid- South starting later this week, lasting into early part of next week as several low amplitude mid to upper level perturbations parse a mostly quasi zonal flow regime. This pattern will bring daily rain chances to the region through a bulk of the forecast period. While there does not appear to be a good signal for severe potential in the extended period, the 00z run of the deterministic ECMWF shows a relatively unstable environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and marginally favorable effective shear magnitudes across portions of the Mid-South on Monday evening. Furthermore, there appears to be a southward surging convective line depicted by this model that emanates over portions of the Mid-West. Despite the robustness of this particular solution, other global guidance and related ensemble counterparts appear to differ, which offers little confidence in this scenario at this time. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period as high pressure continues to dominate. Fog is possible at MKL/TUP later later this morning under clear skies, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. A quasi-stationary front will move south, over the Mid- South, tomorrow afternoon as light winds slowly shift east/northeast. VCSH is expected to move over both MEM and TUP tomorrow evening along a weak shortwave. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...AEH