Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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912 FXUS64 KMEG 301730 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1230 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A beautiful late spring day is underway across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s areawide. Below normal humidity will remain in place today as dry easterly flow continues across the region. Moisture return will set up across the region tomorrow morning as winds shift back around to the south and a complex of showers and thunderstorms approach from the southwest. Forecast is on track with no big changes needed at this time. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather conditions will return to the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon with a chance of a strong to severe thunderstorms through at least Saturday. A period of unsettled weather looks to remain in the forecast through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 In the mid to upper levels, the Mid-South remains in a northwesterly flow pattern with a large scale troughing occurring over the eastern US and ridging taking place over the central US. This pattern looks to persist until later today when the mid- level ridging begins to shift eastward. Thereafter, the flow pattern becomes quasi-zonal with a shortwave trough that ejects out of the Plains and toward the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature, at least weak cyclogenesis appears likely to occur, which results increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region between tomorrow and Saturday. It is also possible that isolated severe thunderstorm activity could occur tomorrow and Saturday, as the Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the Mid- South in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. For now the main threats with this activity appear to be damaging winds, and perhaps isolated instances of large hail in more organized cells. Unsettled weather looks to hang around in the extended period through at least the middle of next week, as multiple disturbances appear to move through a mostly quasi-zonal flow regime. For now, there does not appear to be a consensus with respect to severe potential from global ensembles and deterministic models and machine learning guidance in the extended period, but this will be monitored closely and updates will be provided as things evolve. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, although mid to high level ceilings will likely stick around through tomorrow afternoon. A surge of precip is expected to move up through the MS Delta starting tomorrow morning shortly after sunrise, reaching MEM by 13Z. It is unclear how widespread the rain shield will actually be with the initial onset, but kept prevailing SHRA for now after looking at several point soundings and finding very little instability until at least 21Z. Coverage of precip looks to become more sporadic in the afternoon but picks back up at the very end of this TAF period after 00Z Saturday. East/southeasterly winds 8-10 kts look fairly persistent. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...CAD