Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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229 FXUS64 KMEG 301138 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 638 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather conditions will return to the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon with a chance of a strong to severe thunderstorms through at least Saturday. A period of unsettled weather looks to remain in the forecast through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 In the mid to upper levels, the Mid-South remains in a northwesterly flow pattern with a large scale troughing occurring over the eastern US and ridging taking place over the central US. This pattern looks to persist until later today when the mid- level ridging begins to shift eastward. Thereafter, the flow pattern becomes quasi-zonal with a shortwave trough that ejects out of the Plains and toward the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature, at least weak cyclogenesis appears likely to occur, which results increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region between tomorrow and Saturday. It is also possible that isolated severe thunderstorm activity could occur tomorrow and Saturday, as the Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the Mid- South in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. For now the main threats with this activity appear to be damaging winds, and perhaps isolated instances of large hail in more organized cells. Unsettled weather looks to hang around in the extended period through at least the middle of next week, as multiple disturbances appear to move through a mostly quasi-zonal flow regime. For now, there does not appear to be a consensus with respect to severe potential from global ensembles and deterministic models and machine learning guidance in the extended period, but this will be monitored closely and updates will be provided as things evolve. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR will continue at Midsouth TAF sites through the next 24 to 30 hours, as easterly surface winds prevail. A warm front will lift north through region Friday afternoon and evening, coinciding with returning SHRA/TSRA chances. JBR TAF remains AMD NOT SKED due to multiple sensor outages at the ASOS. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...PWB