Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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557 FXUS64 KMEG 310346 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1046 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Dry easterly flow continues at the surface resulting in another fine evening across the Mid-South. However, things will be changing soon. A first shortwave will approach the region later tonight into Friday morning with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms spreading across the area. A more significant piece of energy will push into the region Friday late afternoon into Friday night with increasing moisture and instability. This could lead to a few severe storms mainly over east AR and northwest MS along with locally heavy rainfall. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Wet and unsettled weather will begin on Friday as a convective complex of storms moves into the area. A few strong to severe storms are possible with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and the potential for a tornado or two. Rain chances will remain high through Saturday as a cold front moves across the area. Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day through the middle of next week as a series of upper level disturbances move through the region. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the 80s each day. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A beautiful late spring across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with sunny skies and low humidity. The airmass will undergo a significant change over the next 12-24 hours as a plume of rich moisture moves into the region. For context, PWATs are one standard deviation below normal for this time of year and will surge to 1.5 standard deviations by tomorrow afternoon. The marked increase in moisture will yield the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, heavy rainfall will become a threat for areas along and west of the Mississippi River through Saturday as multiple rounds of rainfall occur. HRRR guidance suggests 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts is possible over southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi through Friday afternoon. HREF guidance is much less bullish on precipitation total, so uncertainty remains too high to pull the trigger on a flash flood watch at this time. The main feature to watch tomorrow morning through Friday evening will be a MCV that is expected to track slowly across central Arkansas late tonight through Friday afternoon. As moisture surges ahead of this mesoscale feature tomorrow, SBCAPE values could climb to around 2000 J/kg in eastern Arkansas with up to 1000 J/kg into west Tennessee. With up to 35 knots of bulk shear, a few mini supercells could develop by mid afternoon and could pose an all-hazards risk. A Slight Risk remains in effect for areas west of a north to south line from Blytheville, Arkansas to Bartlett, Tennessee to Oxford, Mississippi. A deepening positively-tilted shortwave will translate east through central Arkansas with a weak surface low developing over SEMO by Saturday morning. At the surface, an increasingly unstable airmass will develop by Saturday morning and afternoon ahead of a cold front. The ECMWF depicts the shortwave taking on a negative tilt, which could push a QLCS through the region Saturday morning or afternoon. The limiting factor for a higher end severe threat will likely be the ongoing convection across the area Saturday morning. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk is in effect for severe thunderstorms across the entire area. As hi-res model guidance becomes available, a Slight Risk could be added as the convective mode may become more clear. The cold front will push through the region late Saturday night, briefly ending showers and thunderstorms across the region. Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through the long term forecast as a series of weak shortwaves translate through nearly zonal flow aloft. This will keep a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day through midweek. With the increased clouds and showers across the region, temperatures should remain near normal with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s each day. A more organized system looks to arrive by mid to late week as a large trough digs down across the entire Mississippi Valley a pushes a cold front through the region. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The main focus this period will be timing of precipitation as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms appear likely. Thinking the initial wave of showers will not arrive until mid- morning with TS chances increasing in the afternoon and evening. CIGs should remain VFR with winds gusting to 20 kts by midday. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ANS