Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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059 FXUS62 KMFL 251131 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Models show fair agreement regarding the overall scenario for today. The persisting ridge over the area will briefly erode as a shortwave trough feature migrates eastward into the Atlantic seaboard. Thermodynamic parameters will become a little more robust by this afternoon with SBCAPE values around 1500 J/kg, while model PWATs around 2 inches depict increasing moisture advection with the winds shifting S/SW. But the key element for convection to get initiated will revolve around the sea breeze boundaries, with the Atlantic sea breeze driving thunderstorm activity early in the afternoon. The overall flow pattern will favor shower/storm activity over the east half of SoFlo with best chances late in the afternoon. As the sea breeze boundaries begin marching inland, expect a few storms to become strong, or even severe at times. The latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a marginal risk for severe storms today. Main hazards will be strong damaging winds, large hail, lightning strikes, and localized flooding. Despite the increasing cloud cover and potential for convection, model solutions remain stubborn in keeping afternoon high temps in the low-mid 90s. Can`t even rule out a few interior spots in the upper 90s. For Sunday, models quickly push the aforementioned trough further Into the western Atlantic, with a mid-level ridge building back Across the peninsula. This will help in shifting flow back to the SE, along with increasing drier mid-level air advection. However, The Gulf coast should have a westerly sea breeze veering winds to a more westerly flow in the afternoon. Convective activity will be much less than Saturday, with mainly the Atlantic coast carrying low-end POPs. Expect the warming trend to continue on Sunday with afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s, along with heat index values in the 105 range over interior areas && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Models keep a mid-level ridge in place early next week, with drier mid-level air and ridging keeping convection to a minimum through the middle of the work week. Then global solutions show the mid-level ridge eroding away as a deepening trough reaches the eastern CONUS. An associated sfc frontal boundary will move southward and through the Florida peninsula late Wednesday and Thursday. And although some discrepancies remain in the global models, it seems that solutions are trending towards pushing the boundary either near of just over SoFlo. However, regardless of the final outcome, it should bring an increase in moisture and instability, with better chances of showers and storms for the end of the work week. Convection will again be mainly driven by sea breezes each afternoon. Expect high temperatures continue to hit the low-mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and in the upper 90s over some interior locations. Increasing moisture will also result in heat index values in the 100 to 105 range, and localized areas rising above 105. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the morning across all sites. Chances for terminal disruptions and MVFR/IFR increase after 19Z as scattered SHRA/TSRA develop across southeast FL. Light and variable winds this morning will give way to SE flow 10-15 kts this afternoon. Light and variable again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Boating conditions will remain generally good today, then southerly winds will become breezy and close to exercise caution criteria on Sunday and Monday. Benign conditions should return on Tuesday as winds shift to the SE and decrease to around 10kt across the coastal waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The moderate risk of rip currents will become low at the Palm beaches today, and remain low over the rest of the beaches through the weekend and into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1200 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s. 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA: 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 78 93 80 / 60 50 20 10 West Kendall 94 73 94 76 / 50 30 20 10 Opa-Locka 94 76 94 78 / 60 50 20 10 Homestead 92 76 92 78 / 40 30 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 91 80 / 50 50 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 92 76 93 79 / 50 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 95 77 96 79 / 50 50 20 10 West Palm Beach 93 75 94 77 / 50 50 20 10 Boca Raton 93 76 94 77 / 50 50 20 20 Naples 91 76 91 77 / 10 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...ATV