Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
421 FXUS62 KMFL 281741 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 141 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today as troughing moves into the eastern US displacing the mid-lvl ridge which had been in place over our area the last couple days. At the same time a weak cold front will shift into the vicinity of Northern Florida and then largely stall north of the area for much of the upcoming week. A warm and moist airmass will be in place over SFL with highs once again increasing well into the 90s area-wide and peak heat indices into the triple digits. Heat indices may increase over 105 degrees over portions of the area, with some potential for some sites over the east coast meeting heat advisory criteria, however, ongoing convective initiation and cloud cover will limit the duration component of our heat criteria. The low- lvl mean flow will still have a mean westerly component, making the east coast sea breeze once again the main forcing mechanism for convection and also focusing the highest rain chances over the eastern Interior and east coast metro. Deep-layer flow will remain weak (albeit increasing slightly as a shortwave approaches) so don`t expect convection to be particularly organized, although strong winds from individual cell microbursts will remain a threat given steep low-lvl lapse rates and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Cooling temperatures aloft (particularly over Palm Beach county) will result in some hail potential as well, although not particularly confident in the large hail potential. The overall synoptic setup will be pretty similar on Wednesday with the stalled front remaining north of the area, local winds being largely driven by sea-breeze circulations, and hot temperatures persisting. Convection will once again be sea-breeze driven although spatial coverage may be a little more equitable as westerly synoptic flow weakens allowing for greater inland progression of the sea breeze. Convective coverage and intensity may be marginally lower than today given the lack of shortwave forcing and somewhat warmer mid-lvl temperatures, however on the whole scattered coverage (i.e. 35-50 PoPs) seem reasonable. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Longwave troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through the long-term period, with the low-lvl flow trending a bit more easterly Thursday/Friday. This will tend to focus the best convective chances over the Interior and west coast, with generally scattered coverage expected. Hot conditions should prevail with the front remaining stalled north of the area, but highs may drop a couple degrees over the east coast due to the quicker diurnal sea breeze progression. Easterly flow will become more established this weekend into early next week as stronger high pressure builds north of the area, with guidance now generally coinciding that the previously stalled boundary will actually (in a surprising turn of events for early June) make it through the area. Temperatures will cool closer to seasonable normals with forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s on the east coast and lower 90s over the west coast and Interior. Thunderstorm chances will be reduced behind the boundary as more stable air filters in, although some quick-moving coastal convergence induced showers will be possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Some sub VFR periods will be possible with VCSH/TS over the Atlantic sites through this evening and may result in TEMPOs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period. SE winds around 10kt along the Atlantic sites, with the westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Winds go light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through at least the middle of the week over the Atlantic waters, while the Gulf waters will see more westerly winds, particularly over the near- shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze. Seas will remain 3 feet or less through the period. Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the mid-week period resulting in brief periods of locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 93 77 91 / 50 50 20 40 West Kendall 75 95 74 93 / 40 40 20 40 Opa-Locka 77 95 76 92 / 50 40 20 40 Homestead 77 93 75 91 / 40 40 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 78 90 / 60 40 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 77 93 77 90 / 60 40 20 40 Pembroke Pines 78 96 77 94 / 50 40 20 40 West Palm Beach 75 93 75 91 / 60 30 20 30 Boca Raton 77 93 76 91 / 60 40 20 30 Naples 77 93 76 95 / 10 30 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Culver