800
FXUS62 KMFL 041120
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A weak upper troughing (nearly zonal) synoptic regime maintains
a presence over South Florida, with established easterly flow
continuing within the boundary layer. The presence of easterly
flow will allow for isolated to scattered showers along the east
coast, with a gradual inland propagation by the afternoon hours.
Subtle mid-level ridging could suppress coverage at times,
however expect scattered thunderstorm coverage over the interior
at some point today. Some outflows may also propagate towards the
east, which could spawn isolated convection across parts of the
east coast in the afternoon. The primary hazards to consider will
be strong winds and occasional lightning. The environment
generally does not favor severe thunderstorms today, however
cannot rule out a stronger storm or two in the presence of higher
instability.

Wednesday will feature a somewhat similar pattern, though a
subtle (but important) veering of winds out of the east- southeast
will take place. This will allow for a slight uptick in moisture
advection across the region, and thus we could expect more total
storm coverage and areal rainfall for the middle of the week.
Again, the interior and southwest regions will likely experience
the greatest convective coverage. Impacts will be limited to
lightning and locally strong wind gusts.

The easterly winds will allow for less oppressive conditions, as
the east coast should experience maximum temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s, and heat indices below 100 degrees. For the interior
and west coast, temperatures may reach the low/mid 90s and heat
indices may exceed 100, but should remain below advisory criteria.
Perhaps a few degrees warmer by Wednesday, but still below heat
advisory criteria for the populated east coast metro region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The veering of the low-level flow will shift the convective focus
towards the interior and east coast in the late-week period.
Thursday could be the wettest day for the east coast as a subtle
shortwave pivots down from the northwest. The main hazards are a
few strong thunderstorms that may lead to frequent lightning and
localized flooding. Another stronger impulse associated with
elongated short-wave north of the area could bring another round
of storms to round out the week, though a bit more uncertainty
here as the greatest dynamics could stay further north of the
region. Nevertheless, expect an increase in overall shower and
thunderstorm coverage across the east coast to round off the week.

Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the southward progress
of the front and the eastward extent of the building ridging over
the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). For now, a general 30-50% chance of
precipitation (PoPs) seems reasonable.

Temperatures will rise in the late-week and weekend period over
the east coast as the flow shifts more to the west-southwest.
Highs are likely to reach the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices
will likely approach or exceed 105 degrees by Friday and
Saturday. Consequently, heat advisories cannot be ruled out,
particularly if rain chances are reduced due to a weakened front
and/or stronger mid-level height rises ahead of the ridge.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mainly VFR prevails through around 15Z, then another round of
showers and afternoon thunderstorms may bring periods of Sub-VFR
cigs/vis for the Atlantic sites. APF has better chances at
thunderstorm activity after 17Z. ESE Winds increase into the
10-12kt range this afternoon, then light and variable later in the
evening. Only exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops
with afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mainly VFR prevails through around 15Z, then another round of
showers and afternoon thunderstorms may bring periods of Sub-VFR
cigs/vis for the Atlantic sites. APF has better chances at
thunderstorm activity after 17Z. ESE Winds increase into the
10-12kt range this afternoon, then light and variable later in the
evening. Only exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops
with afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Aside from scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters,
boating conditions will be mostly favorable through this week.
Easterly winds could be breezy at times, though generally around
10 to 15 knots can be expected, with locally elevated winds and
seas around thunderstorms. Seas generally should not exceed 2 to
3 feet through the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today for all the
beaches of Palm Beach county with persisting ESE winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  78  90  79 /  40  30  60  50
West Kendall     91  75  91  75 /  40  20  60  50
Opa-Locka        90  78  91  78 /  40  30  60  40
Homestead        89  78  89  77 /  40  30  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  87  78  89  78 /  40  30  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  88  78  89  78 /  40  30  60  50
Pembroke Pines   91  78  93  79 /  40  30  60  40
West Palm Beach  88  76  90  76 /  40  40  60  40
Boca Raton       89  77  91  76 /  40  40  60  50
Naples           93  76  93  78 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...ATV