Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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384 FXUS62 KMFL 261130 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Models show mid-level ridging stretching its axis from the GOMEX and into the SE CONUS, which gradually slides southward as a trough deepens further north. With the ridge axis moving over the peninsula, subsidence and overall stability will increase. This will result in decreasing chances of showers during the short term period, with POPs/Wx coverage dropping to the 20-30 percent range. Best chances will happen with sea breeze activity each afternoon. Sfc winds will become generally light with the ridge above the area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across much of South FL. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Models depict a change in the synoptic pattern that will bring prevailing unsettled weather conditions through the long term. A trough will persist over the E CONUS during much of the workweek with several impulses moving around its base. This will erode the ridge over SoFlo, while pushing a sfc boundary into the northern half of the state. Long range solutions show this front stalling around central on Wednesday, with SoFlo remaining in the warm sector through the end of the week. Latest solutions bring PoPs into the 40-50 percent range each afternoon as model soundings showing PWAT values around 2 inches, along with increasing lapse rates. Expect a daily threat of possible urban flooding, especially with the stronger thunderstorms. Sea breezes will once again become the focal point for deep convection, with potential for localized downpours. However, even with the increased rain coverage, expect current hot conditions to continue. Afternoon highs will remain in the low-mid 90s across metro areas, and mid to upper 90s over some interior areas. Even higher heat index values are possible, generally 100+ degrees each day through at least Thursday. By Saturday, a brief relief is possible as winds shift to the northeast, but only a few degrees below current values. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Generally VFR conditions expected through the period at all sites. Light and variable winds this morning will give way to sea breezes after 16Z, with SE flow for East Coast terminals and W flow at KAPF. There`s a slight chance for SHRA along the East Coast this afternoon but confidence regarding terminal impacts remains low at this time. Light and variable winds again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Moderate southerly winds continue today before veering to a SE flow on Monday and through the middle of the week. The Gulf waters may experience westerly onshore flow each afternoon with the sea breezes. Conditions may approach exercise criteria on today and Monday with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly higher gusts. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day across the local waters. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s. 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA: 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 80 / 20 10 30 20 West Kendall 95 76 94 77 / 20 10 30 20 Opa-Locka 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 30 20 Homestead 93 77 93 79 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 93 78 93 79 / 20 10 30 30 Pembroke Pines 96 79 97 80 / 20 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 93 76 94 77 / 20 10 20 30 Boca Raton 93 78 94 78 / 20 10 20 30 Naples 92 77 93 78 / 0 0 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...ATV