Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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124 FXUS62 KMFL 260519 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 119 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as ridging erodes and the sea breezes become the driving features for convection. The 12Z sounding showed moderate instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms, with current values of SBCAPE and PWATs at 1300 J/kg and 1.5 inches, respectively, which could climb up to values greater than 3000 J/Kg and near 2 inches this afternoon. This - combined with growing lapse rates as warming continues - will support a damaging wind threat and the chance for localized flooding across western-most portions of the southeast FL metro areas where the sea breezes are forecast to collide. An additional risk exists for small hail with some of the stronger storms, but warmer temperatures aloft will help limit this risk. Temperatures will reach the mid 90s later this afternoon ahead of the convection as winds remain out of the S/SW, with heat indices in the low 100s possible. Some relief will be felt across the East Coast once the sea breeze pushes in, but we`re talking a few degrees of difference, if that. Ridging will build back on Sunday with only isolated chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Lack of cloud coverage and convection will once again allow temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across much of South FL. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Weather looks more unsettled this upcoming week as the ridge breaks down and several impulses pivot around the base of a trough that sets up over the eastern US. At the surface, a frontal boundary will linger north of Lake Okeechobee in the mid to end week time frame. Monday will be the driest day of the week with 20-30 PoPs for mainly afternoon and early evening diurnally driven convection. PoPs then increase to 40-50 for Tuesday through Friday with the added moisture and instability in place across South FL. Forecast soundings for the middle to end of next week show deep layer moisture with PWAT values in excess of 2 inches. This will lead to efficient rain rates with the stronger thunderstorms, and could potentially lead to some urban flooding concerns across the metro, especially if multiple storms move over the same areas within a short period of time. Still plenty of time to evaluate this over the next several days. Regardless, the increase in convection coverage next week could bring some much needed relief to portions of South FL still experiencing drought conditions, especially around the lake region. No relief expected at least in the early to middle portion of next week from the heat, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s across the metro, and mid to upper 90s over the interior. Max heat indices will be over 100 degrees each day through at least Thursday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 70s to around 80. Some minor relief is possible late next week into next weekend as the low level flow becomes northeasterly, however temps are likely to remain above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon near the east coast terminals but currently confidence in coverage is too low to include mention of TS in current TAFs. Light and variable winds this morning will shift to the SE at the east coast terminals and westerly at KAPF this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Exercise caution conditions could be possible Sunday-Monday as southerly winds 10-15 kts prevail over the local waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 With generally southerly flow prevailing, the risk of rip currents across East Coast will remain low through the holiday weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s. 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA: 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 80 / 20 10 30 30 West Kendall 95 76 94 77 / 20 10 30 20 Opa-Locka 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 30 30 Homestead 93 77 93 78 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 93 78 93 79 / 20 10 30 30 Pembroke Pines 96 79 97 80 / 20 10 30 30 West Palm Beach 93 76 94 76 / 20 10 20 30 Boca Raton 93 78 94 77 / 20 10 20 30 Naples 92 77 93 78 / 0 0 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...Carr