Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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777 FXUS62 KMFL 232332 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 732 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Latest (5/24 00Z) MFL atmospheric sounding indicates a meager < ~3% RH at 700 mb, indicating a significant lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Stout upper ridging aloft will continue to promote a dry atmosphere, generally quelling shower/thunderstorm chances through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Broad mid to upper level ridding will continue to build over South Florida through the end of the week as a mid level trough continues to push northeastward. This should keep a light east to southeast flow across the area, allowing the east coast sea breeze to propagate relatively far inland today and tomorrow so shower and thunderstorm concerns over eastern metro areas remains nearly nonexistent. The steering flow aloft will remain northerly through the end of the week and this will keep the highest chances of shower and thunderstorm development over southern and western areas of South Florida. The potential for strong thunderstorm development will remain low due to a lack of synoptic scale forcing and rather low instability, however, an isolated strong storm containing gusty winds cannot be ruled out especially over southwestern areas where sea breeze boundaries and thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. High temperatures today and Friday will generally rise into the upper 80s to around 90 along the east coast and into the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 This Weekend... An mid to upper level trough will remain over the Bahamas this weekend, as the surface ridge of high pressure moves southward into the Florida Keys due to a low level trough moving southeast across Northern Florida. The wind flow will be light allowing for the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push inland each afternoon. However, the west coast sea breeze will be a little bit stronger than the east coast sea breeze due to the surface flow being out of the south southwest direction. This will allow for the west coast sea breeze to push further inland than the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. At the same time, the drier weather will also remain over South Florida this weekend keeping most of the area dry. The only exception to this is over the Interior and NE areas of South Florida Saturday afternoon into the evening hours where a few showers or thunderstorms could develop, due to the closeness of the low level trough to the north. High temperatures this weekend will also get up into the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to upper 90s to near 100 degrees over the interior areas. These high temperatures will be near the record highs for this time of year. More info in the climate section below. The heat indices this weekend will also be in the lower 100s over the metro areas to the mid 100s over the interior areas. Lows this weekend will also be in the lower to mid 70s over the interior areas with the metro areas in the mid to upper 70s. Early To Middle Of Next Week... The mid to upper level trough over the Bahamas will weaken, as a stronger mid to upper level trough moves east from the Central United States into the Eastern United States. This will keep the ridge of high pressure over the Florida Keys during this time frame. This in turn will allow for the steering flow to remain in a south to southwest direction over South Florida while keeping the atmosphere relativity dry for this time of year. However, there could still be a few showers and thunderstorms over South Florida especially over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Highs will continue to be in the mid 90s to near 100 especially over the northern interior areas each afternoon with the west coast metro areas be in the lower to mid 90s. This will allow for the heat indices to remain in the lower to mid 100s over most of South Florida each afternoon. Lows will also remain in the lower to mid 70s over most areas, except for the west coast metro areas where it will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Winds generally E around 5 to 10 kt. Gulf sea breeze may cause WSW wind shift at APF in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 In general, a gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across the region through the end of the week across the local waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds will shift to the west southwest each afternoon due to the Gulf breeze developing. Winds will gradually become more southerly across all local waters as the upcoming weekend progresses. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Atlantic and Gulf waters each day. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the end of the week. The threat of rip currents will then decrease this weekend into next week due to more of a southerly wind flow. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Here are the forecast highs and record highs for the climate sites for South Florida this weekend. Cities Forecast Highs Record Highs 5/25 5/26 5/27 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA 95 95 95 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL 93 93 93 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI 94 94 95 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 78 95 / 0 10 0 10 West Kendall 73 93 77 95 / 0 10 0 10 Opa-Locka 76 92 77 95 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 75 90 78 91 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 88 78 92 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 76 90 77 92 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 73 91 75 94 / 0 0 0 20 Boca Raton 74 91 77 92 / 0 10 0 10 Naples 77 91 77 90 / 10 10 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....BNB AVIATION/UPDATE...SRB