Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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340 FXUS62 KMFL 271158 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 758 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The mid-lvl ridge will remain in place over SFL this Memorial Day, maintaining hot and largely dry conditions over the area. Can`t rule out isolated to scattered (at best) showers and thunderstorms over the Interior and east coast late this afternoon (with the east coast sea breeze being the main focus for convection) but given the dry mid-lvls and dynamic subsidence do not expect that storm intensity and coverage will be particularly notable. The main story will be today`s high temperatures which will likely approach daily records, reaching the mid to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the immediate coast). Although peak heat indices will likely reach triple digits, the airmass should be dry enough to keep peak head indices below heat headline criteria. The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern CONUS while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective activity relative to Monday is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms. The synoptic flow will remain westerly so the mesoscale convective focus should once again be the east coast sea breeze which will favor the eastern half of the Peninsula for storms. Given that highs will once again reach the mid 90s, steep low-lvl lapse rates and abundant DCAPE is expected leading to the potential for strong wet microbursts, however, with the flow aloft remaining modest don`t see a widespread (organized) severe threat materializing at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 In contrast to the ridging dominated pattern that has largely prevailed over our area the last few weeks, the longwave pattern through the extended period will be characterized by longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS with several convectively- enhanced shortwaves also likely moving into the region. At the surface, the aforementioned cold front will likely remain stalled near or just north of the area through most of the workweek with a continued warm and largely sea-breeze driven wind regime prevailing (albeit trending more easterly by the late week period). This setup will result in generally scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, although the exact evolution will remain somewhat uncertain as synoptic forcing remains weak making mesoscale interactions (i.e. sea breezes and outflow boundaries) more prominent. Temperatures should remain above normal, with highs in the 90s (highest temperatures Interior) through the workweek. Heading into next weekend high pressure north of the area will build, resulting in increasing synoptic easterly flow, and potentially even bringing the (weak) cold front through the area. Given that we will be entering June confidence is not super high in the front making it into the Straits, but if anything the enhanced easterly flow should at least knock down high temps a few degrees over the east coast regardless of whether or not the front makes it through. Additionally, if the stronger easterly regime materializes instability would be knocked down and we would see a temporary shift from a wet season diurnal deep convection regime to one in which rain would be more of the coastal convergence showers variety. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 756 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out this afternoon, but chances are very low. SE to SSE winds return after 15Z, except westerly winds at KAPF with the sea breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Moderate S-SE flow will continue on Monday and persist through the middle of the week over the Atlantic waters. The Gulf waters will likely see more westerly flow through the period, particularly the near-shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze each afternoon. Conditions may approach small craft exercise criteria today with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly higher gusts but seas should remain low through the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with increasing storm chances Tuesday through the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 80 93 79 / 20 30 50 40 West Kendall 95 77 95 75 / 20 30 50 40 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 78 / 20 30 50 40 Homestead 93 79 93 77 / 20 20 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 92 79 / 20 40 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 94 79 93 78 / 20 30 50 50 Pembroke Pines 96 80 96 79 / 20 30 50 40 West Palm Beach 95 77 95 76 / 10 20 50 50 Boca Raton 94 79 94 77 / 20 30 50 50 Naples 93 78 93 78 / 0 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Culver