814
FXUS66 KMFR 112356
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
456 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

.SHORT TERM...The stratus that was at the coast this morning has
moved eastward, but has stayed west of the Cascades. Temperatures
are warming to an average 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal east
of the Cascades this afternoon with highs in the 80s. Highs will
also warm into the mid- /upper 80s in the Rogue Valley this
afternoon.

Ridging will still be in control through Thursday. Most areas
tonight will see temperatures falling to the mid-40s to low to
mid- 50s. The exception will be in northern Klamath and Lake
counties where lows in the 30s will be found. This trend, along
with the above average temperatures, will continue through
Thursday. The morning meteorologist noted the concern of nearing
record high temperatures at Mount Shasta tomorrow and Thursday.
The record high for Mount Shasta tomorrow is 92 from 1948 and
Thursday is 88 from 2019. With highs between 90-92 degrees both
days, this will need to be monitored.

Other than warm temperatures, there will also be breezy conditions.
Overall winds will be westerly east of the Cascades and northerly
elsewhere the next two afternoons. Winds will reach 5-15 mph with
gusts near 20-25 mph. Once we get into Friday troughing begins to
take over, and this is discussed in the long term forecast.

-Hermansen

.LONG TERM...An upper level trough will move into the
region Friday and Saturday with a front moving inland north of the
area. This will bring cooler temperature and breezy to gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures are expected to trend 3 to 6 degrees
below normal by Saturday. Breezy to gusty winds are expected as well
with current models indicating winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph during
the afternoons Friday and Saturday. Chances for light rain (15 to
30%) are mainly limited to Coos and Douglas counties Friday night
and Saturday morning.

Next another  front approaches the region Sunday into early next
week  bringing a pattern of continued mild temperatures, breezy to
gusty afternoon winds and chances for rain.  The National Blend of
Models continues to support chances for rain (15-30%) along the
coast and inland into Douglas County. However, there is a potential
for light to moderate rain over a wider area Monday into Tuesday
depending on the strength and track of the low moving into the
region. Currently, models favor a weaker and less moist system with
light rain focused mainly along the coast and inland over Douglas
County. Only 25% of the GFS ensemble and 10% of the ECMWF ensemble
members indicate a stronger/moister system with more widespread
precipitation over the area.  -CC

&&

.AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs...VFR will prevail across much of the area
for the next 24 hours. The exception will be over portions of Coos
and Douglas counties where conditions may be locally MVFR due to
marine clouds (including at North Bend). These could erode to VFR in
some areas overnight, but shouldn`t last much past mid-morning at
the latest Wednesday with VFR expected in all areas Wednesday
afternoon. Gusty N-NW winds this evening subside overnight, but pick
up again Weddensday afternoon/evening, especially at North Bend
where gusts up to 35 kt are possible. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 245 PM Tuesday, June 11, 2024...North winds will
remain strong ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds and seas
will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through tonight before a
thermal trough builds on Wednesday afternoon. This thermal trough
will be gale force winds in the southern waters south of Port Orford
along with high and steep seas south of North Bend.  Seas could
reach up to 15 feet off of Pt. St. George on Wednesday evening due
to the strong gale force winds. Conditions improve Thursday onwards.
The sea state will be rather low on Friday as we`re expecting a 4 to
5 foot swell out of the west around 12 seconds.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-
     370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$