043
FXUS66 KMFR 111316
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
616 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (12Z)...

North Bend will be the difficult TAF forecast for this cycle as
low clouds may move over the terminal, but confidence in this is
low. If this occurs, it would be through the morning and early
afternoon hours. Otherwise, lots of sunshine expected inland with
winds breezy at times. Light and variable winds return later
this evening.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024/

DISCUSSION...Weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday will be
largely the same day after day. High pressure will be present,
with a building thermal trough along the coast.

Stratus has settled in along the Pacific coast this morning,
limiting visibility in some places. The stratus is already
beginning to erode north of Cape Blanco, as strong north winds
develop in response to the building thermal trough. South of Cape
Blanco, around Brookings, fog has gotten stuck in and is likely to
last near sunrise. Stratus and areas of fog are expected along
the coast each of the next nights at least for short durations
before the winds mix them away. Further inland, warm temperatures
5-10 degrees above normal are expected, with afternoon breezes
present.

Thursday evening through Friday, a trough will move move towards
the PNW. Temperatures will rewind back to spring-like conditions
more reminiscent of early May by Friday afternoon. The coolest
day looks to be Sunday, father`s day. No rain is expected with the
first front that moves through the region Thursday night. Winds
will be stronger, though.

Winds will become gusty in the afternoons from Friday through
Monday. The strongest winds are currently forecast for Sunday, but
there exists enough spread in the model data that this part of the
forecast is still subject to change. This quasi-stagnant trough
will also help keep humidities higher overnight and prevent
humidities from nearing critical thresholds in the afternoons.
Overall, this passing trough should not a have a high impact on
fire weather related conditions, considering the time of year it`s
moving through.

The trough will remain over the region Friday through the weekend,
moving weak fronts through that will have almost no chance for
rain in S. OR and NorCal. The fronts will erode the dry air in
the region, however, and the troughs slow motion will allow
moisture to build. This will eventually lead to a moist front
moving through the region at the start of next week, most likely
after Monday (06/17) night. Where, and how much rain comes with
this system are still unknown.
-Miles

AVIATION...11/06Z TAFs...VFR ceilings will persist away from the
coast through the TAF period. IFR ceilings are anticipated to build
into the coast again tonight near North Bend as high pressure and
strong inversion remain present. Some MVFR ceilings should move into
the coast around Tuesday morning and afternoon as plenty of moisture
remains present in the boundary layer. A cold front with some modest
vertical lift ahead of a dry cold front will aid in the coastal
cloud cover.  We`ll see those ceilings clear out later Tuesday
evening.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 230 AM Tuesday, June 11, 2024...North winds
increase again this afternoon through Thursday morning as another
moderate west swell arrives. We will have a transition period from
one hazard today to multiple hazards tonight/Wednesday. Across the
southern waters on Wednesday, we will have a Hazardous Seas Warning
and a Gale Warning, but the northern waters will have a Hazardous
Seas Warning and a Small Craft Advisory. Across the southern waters,
the probability for wind gusts of 41 knots or greater is around 80-
95% where we have a Gale Warning. Winds and seas remain elevated
through Thursday, but should lower some through the end of the week.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ356-376.

&&

$$