Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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470 FXUS66 KMFR 092141 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 241 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .DISCUSSION... .Short Term...Rest of today through Tuesday Night...Showers and thunderstorms continue east of the Cascades today as an upper level disturbance passes over the region. As this trough pushes farther east, the focus of activity will shift to the east as well. We do expect the greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms to be somewhat earlier today compared to previous days, peaking in the early afternoon vs late afternoon/evening as in previous days. We could see some strong storms today, but the chance for severe is fairly low (5 to 10%). While the atmosphere is fairly similar to previous days with similar CAPE and LI values, bulk shear is weaker today, around 20 to 30 kts, and the forcing mechanism is moving through early enough in the day to limit the peak heating contribution. Regardless, with any thunderstorms that develop today, expect strong gusty winds as well as the potential for hail. One the trough exits to the east and convective activity tapers off this evening, ridging will then build into the area, with the area drying out and temperatures warming again slightly, to about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, and the thermal trough will reintensify along the coast. The thermal trough will then push inland by Monday evening, leading to our warmest day inland. The ridge will then flatten a bit, leading to mostly zonal flow overhead and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with dry conditions continuing into the extended period. -BPN .LONG TERM...Wednesday 6/12 through Sunday 6/16...The extended forecast begins with either weak ridging at the mid levels of the atmosphere. While weak disturbances will pass largely to the north of the area over the ridge, we can expect dry weather to continue across southern Oregon and northern California through the extended period. However, this pattern will allow humidities to dry out considerably Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, temperatures will be much slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s east of the Cascades and lower 80s to upper 70s east of the Cascades. The coast will be cooler with temperatures in the 60s. Then, for the weekend, the general flow pattern will turn to become more unsettled as a low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. The general front ahead of the low will be relatively weak and precipitation is not expected as far south as southern Oregon. However, some precipitation in showers will be possible within the low itself. Ensembles do show some timing differences, but the general thought is that temperatures will be even cooler over the weekend, winds will be breezy, and that a slight showers will be possible largely north of the Douglas/Lane County Border. However, this could change as the details of this system become more clear. Have gone with the National Blend of Models for this forecast package. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...09/18Z TAFs...Marine stratus has brought a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings to the coast near Brookings and also north of Cape Blanco, including North Bend, this morning. Ceilings will persist through this morning, then break up to VFR this afternoon. Inland, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Mid-level moisture and instability associated with an upper level trough will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the Cascades again today, but especially this afternoon/evening. Focus areas will be in eastern Klamath and Lake counties (40-60% chance). These may briefly IFR/MVFR along with strong, gusty winds and hail in the strongest cells. Outside of thunderstorms, expect breezy conditions this afternoon/early this evening with gusts commonly in the 20-25kt range at all TAF sites. Some MVFR/IFR ceilings will return to the coast this evening. -Spilde/Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 9, 2024...A thermal trough will strengthen along the northern California coast resulting in gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas, mainly south of Port Orford through tomorrow. Conditions will at least remain hazardous to small craft through Wednesday morning, especially south of Cape Blanco. Then, the thermal trough will strengthen further bringing stronger north winds and steep seas to all waters Wednesday afternoon and evening with possible gales and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$