425
FXUS66 KMFR 092340
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
440 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation discussion...

.AVIATION...Marine stratus has brought a mix of
IFR/MVFR ceilings to the coast near Brookings and also north of Cape
Blanco, including North Bend. Ceilings will continue tonight into
tomorrow morning at coastal locations.

Inland, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Mid-level
moisture and instability associated with an upper level trough has
brought isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the
Cascades again today. The focus areas are in eastern Klamath and
Lake counties (40-60% chance). These may briefly IFR/MVFR along with
strong, gusty winds and hail in the strongest cells. Outside of
thunderstorms, expect breezy conditions this afternoon/early this
evening with gusts commonly in the 20-25kt range at all TAF sites.
-Splide/Hermansen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Rest of today through Tuesday Night...Showers and
thunderstorms continue east of the Cascades today as an upper
level disturbance passes over the region. As this trough pushes
farther east, the focus of activity will shift to the east as well.
We do expect the greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms to be
somewhat earlier today compared to previous days, peaking in the
early afternoon vs late afternoon/evening as in previous days. We
could see some strong storms today, but the chance for severe is
fairly low (5 to 10%). While the atmosphere is fairly similar to
previous days with similar CAPE and LI values, bulk shear is
weaker today, around 20 to 30 kts, and the forcing mechanism is
moving through early enough in the day to limit the peak heating
contribution. Regardless, with any thunderstorms that develop
today, expect strong gusty winds as well as the potential for
hail.

One the trough exits to the east and convective activity tapers
off this evening, ridging will then build into the area, with the
area drying out and temperatures warming again slightly, to about
10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, and the
thermal trough will reintensify along the coast. The thermal
trough will then push inland by Monday evening, leading to our
warmest day inland. The ridge will then flatten a bit, leading to
mostly zonal flow overhead and slightly cooler temperatures
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with dry conditions continuing into
the extended period. -BPN

LONG TERM...Wednesday 6/12 through Sunday 6/16...The extended
forecast begins with either weak ridging at the mid levels of the
atmosphere. While weak disturbances will pass largely to the north
of the area over the ridge, we can expect dry weather to continue
across southern Oregon and northern California through the extended
period. However, this pattern will allow humidities to dry out
considerably Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, temperatures will
be much slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
east of the Cascades and lower 80s to upper 70s east of the
Cascades. The coast will be cooler with temperatures in the 60s.

Then, for the weekend, the general flow pattern will turn to become
more unsettled as a low pressure system approaches the Pacific
Northwest. The general front ahead of the low will be relatively
weak and precipitation is not expected as far south as southern
Oregon. However, some precipitation in showers will be possible
within the low itself. Ensembles do show some timing differences,
but the general thought is that temperatures will be even cooler
over the weekend, winds will be breezy, and that a slight showers
will be possible largely north of the Douglas/Lane County Border.
However, this could change as the details of this system become more
clear. Have gone with the National Blend of Models for this forecast
package. -Schaaf

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 9, 2024...A thermal trough
will strengthen along the northern California coast resulting in
gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas, mainly south of Port
Orford through tomorrow. Conditions will at least remain hazardous
to small craft through Wednesday morning, especially south of Cape
Blanco. Then, the thermal trough will strengthen further bringing
stronger north winds and steep seas to all waters Wednesday
afternoon and evening with possible gales and very steep seas south
of Cape Blanco.
-Spilde/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5
     AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$