475
FXUS66 KMFR 101101
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
401 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...After an active weekend with daily thunderstorms, a
stable air mass will be in place for the much of the work week
leading to dry conditions. Upper level ridging returns over the
region today and a thermal trough redevelops along the coast.
Marine stratus has returned to the coast north of Cape Blanco and
south of Gold Beach this morning and also fills the Coquille
Basin. Satellite imagery shows some scattered clouds developing in
the Umpqua Basin as well, but skies are clear across the rest of
the forecast area. These clouds will give way to sun by late
morning and inland temperatures will trend warmer today by a few
degrees, reaching about 10 degrees above normal. Subtle changes
are likely through the week, but overall conditions will remain
the same with the nightly return of low clouds along the coast and
seasonable afternoon breezes.

A subtle pattern change will come Tuesday into Wednesday when an
upper level trough passes into the Canadian Provinces. This will
flatten the ridge and bring zonal flow to the region, resulting in a
slight cooling trend west of the Cascades. Afternoon breezes will be
enhanced by this subtle pattern change, but precipitation will
remain well to the north of the forecast area.

A larger pattern change is expected Friday into next weekend as low
pressure moves into the region from the northwest. There remains
varying details regarding precipitation chances, timing in when the
trough moves inland and how long it sticks around, as well as how
far south the trough progresses. Due to this, there is uncertainty
in the details but overall higher confidence in below normal
temperatures and gusty winds over the weekend. Precipitation chances
at this time are greatest for areas along the coast and north of the
Rogue-Umpqua Divide where about 40% of the ensemble solutions bring
some precipitation to these areas, and the other 60% of solutions
maintain dry conditions. Stay tuned as details become more clear
over the coming days. /BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...10/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus is the main concern through
the TAF period as IFR ceilings have already build into the coast
tonight. The boundary layer is anticipated to compress leading to
LIFR ceilings tonight over North Bend(KOTH) ans most of the coast.
These lower ceilings are anticipated to clear up by the late morning
clear skies expected by the afternoon and evening hours.

Marine stratus is anticipated to build into the coast again on
Monday night with IFR ceilings more likely.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, June 10, 2024...A moderate west
swell will subside over the waters this morning. However, a
persistent thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep
seas south of Cape Blanco today through tonight. Winds and seas
subside briefly early Tuesday, but north winds increase again
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as another moderate west swell
arrives. Conditions become hazardous to small craft over all waters
with the potential for gales and very steep, hazardous seas south of
Cape Blanco. Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but
should lower some late in the week. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

MNF/MAS