Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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003 FXUS66 KMFR 080433 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 933 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .DISCUSSION...An update to the forecast is not necessary. Isolated thunderstorms have diminished, with a few spotty showers lingering over the Cascades and the higher terrain of Siskiyou County. The strongest of the cells likely produced hail of up to a half inch earlier this evening near Weed. The forecast is on track for a likely broader area with more activity, with the focus for additional thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon and evening likely to occur in the vicinity of the border of Klamath and Lake counties, extending primarily into the northern portions of those counties, including Chemult and Summer Lake. A secondary, slight chance risk for storms will cover much of Siskiyou and Modoc counties, the remainder of south central Oregon, and the southern Oregon Cascades and Siskiyou Mountains. Model differences arise Sunday regarding whether the western edge of thunderstorm development will be around the Cascade crest per the SREF, or farther east...as far east as the GFS solution to limit activity to Lake and Modoc counties. In this case, the forecast also looks on track with the highest probability for southern Lake County into the Warner Mountains of eastern Modoc County. Beginning Monday, a more stable air mass looks to move in. Though not as hot as today, above normal temperatures look to continue inland through around Thursday. The coast will see an increase in night and morning low clouds Saturday night into early Monday. && .AVIATION...08/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions continue this evening over northern California and southern Oregon. Scattered convective thunderstorms are developing and moving northeast over northern Lake and Klamath counties, and radar has also indicated activity over eastern Siskiyou County as well. Thunderstorm chances will remain in these areas through the evening before calming overnight. Guidance is split on marine stratus developing over the Oregon coast tonight into Saturday morning. Outcomes show anything from clear skies to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities. North Bend TAFs reflect the possible timing of development and clearing, with better chances around Brookings. Other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM Friday, June 7, 2024... Winds and seas will gradually decrease tonight into Saturday as the thermal trough weakens. The break will be short-lived, however, as a moderate west swell moves in late Saturday through Sunday. At the same time, the thermal trough will restrengthen, bringing increasing north winds and steep seas to all waters Sunday into early next week. -Spilde/Smith && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 449 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024/ DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some cumulus building across the higher terrain of southern Oregon and northern California before being dislodged from the mountains and continuing to grow. Some of these clouds are beginning to build up to high enough levels for freezing to occur, especially across northern Klamath and Lake Counties, and thunderstorms may occur later this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be possible northeast of Mt. Shasta, and in Klamath and Lake Counties, however a few cumulus build ups are happening in the Siskiyous and Marble Mountains of Western Siskiyou County, so this will need to be monitored. Forecast soundings continue to show modest CAPE values (>500 J/kg) and have an inverted V structure which traditionally signals the potential for strong winds and downdrafts. However, we are missing the bulk shear for a more organized event. This means that a couple storms may overachieve and product 50 to 60 mph wind gusts. These types of storms will be most possible in northern Klamath and Lake Counties this evening, and to a lesser extend eastern Siskiyou County. Thunderstorms will be possible a bit farther west in Siskiyou County and in Modoc County this evening. (Areas west of the Cascades will not see any thunderstorm potential through this weekend.) The SREF and HREF both are in line with thunderstorm chances peaking between 5 pm and 8 pm, and this seems to be present with what is occurring on Satellite. In addition, conditions will be relatively unstable for fires, and we may see continued quick growth for new wildfires in the area (like the Sulphur Incident near Happy Camp). This thunderstorm pattern is part of our overarching ridge of high pressure across the Pacific Northwest and associated thermal trough which has moved inland today. This will lead to hot temperatures spanning 15 to 20 degrees above normal this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will trend cooler and humidities will trend higher beginning Saturday as the ridge breaks down and is replaced by a trough pushing through the Gulf of Alaska. This ridge breakdown will also continue to mean thunderstorm chances for the next couple of afternoons and evenings-- particularly for areas east of the Cascades and northeast of Mt. Shasta. This is in part due to the deep southwest flow continuing to push through the area. The SREF and HREF are showing a more robust signal for thunderstorms tomorrow evening; so will need to continue evaluating the possibility for severe weather. As of now, it seems like 1 or 2 storms might overachieve to become strong or even severe, but no organized severe weather threat is likely. For portions of northern Klamath and Lake Counties, the thunderstorm threat will likely continue overnight where traditionally drier thunderstorms occur at night. Sunday will be a repeat with afternoon thunderstorms possible and cooler weather, but the thunder threat will largely cease after sunset. The pattern becomes more zonal in nature Monday into the rest of the week as additional systems attempt to push inland across the Pacific Northwest. Right now, ensembles predict that we`ll be dry with continued slightly above normal temperatures and breezy afternoon winds. -Schaaf && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$