338
FXUS62 KMHX 270528
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
128 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then move through Monday night or Tuesday.
Conditions dry slightly Tuesday and Wednesday before the next
front passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
Cooler temps and lower dew points follow in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

 - Overnight strong to severe thunderstorm risk

A small MCS continues to move east across portions of ENC at
this time. There have been numerous reports of 35-45 mph wind
gusts, and occasionally some taller cores have developed right
along the advancing outflow boundary, with an enhanced wind
potential. It appears this MCS will survive all the way to the
coast, although the expectation is that the severe weather
potential will continue to decrease as it encounters lower
instability to the east. Adjustments were made to reflect this
expectation over the next several hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mostly dry across Eastern NC this
evening, with warm and humid conditions continuing. Main focus
for tonight will be the evolution of a rather large MCS that has
formed across the Appalachians, and is now heading eastward
from upstate VA/NC. Whether or not any showers and thunderstorms
from this complex make it to ENC is the question, as high res
guidance remains mixed. Will maintain scattered chances for
precip for most of tonight across the coastal plain and northern
reaches of the forecast area. If convection does hold together
there is a small chance for some of the cells to be strong to
severe as instability will remain through early tonight along
with moderate deep layer shear. The most likely outcome though
is that the complex is weakening and only light thunderstorms or
showers move into the area.

Above normal temps overnight, with lows only falling into the
upper 60s to low 70s. Pesky dense sea fog along the northern
Outer Banks has finally dissipated this afternoon. However,
several of the high res models bring back it back this evening
and overnight. Think this is too pessimistic with winds picking
up, so just kept some patchy fog wording...though locally dense
sea fog will be possible, mainly impacting the beaches north of
Oregon Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Active wx day with potential for severe weather
and potentially the hottest day of the year thus far. Strong low
pressure will continue to lift into the Great Lakes, pushing the
attendant cold front eastward into the Carolinas, while strong
shortwave rotates through the flow aloft.

SPC has upgraded the area to a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Severe wx threat for the area may hinge on a few different
factors, first one being the MCS expected to develop and move
through TN/SC/GA Mon morning. This could bring cluster of
showers and iso storms to eastern NC Monday morning and early
afternoon. *If* this were to happen it could limit
afternoon/evening tstm risk. However, the environment will be
supportive for strong to severe convection, with ML CAPE values
2500-3000 J/kg, very strong deep layer shear 40-50 kt, 0-3 km
SRH 200-300 m2/s2, and steep mid level lapse rates. Damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, large hail and locally heavy
rain will all be possible. Limiting factors for strong to severe
development will be the capping inversion and possible morning
precip. So still uncertainty with the svr risk, but the
potential is certainly there, with best chances after Mon
afternoon and evening.

In addition to severe wx risk - temps will climb into the low
90s inland and 80s for the beaches. Combined with dewpoints in
the 70s will make it feel close to 100 deg for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...A complex upper-level pattern will keep
the beginning of the long term busy. Cold front will move
through Mon night into early Tue.

Tuesday-Wednesday...PoPs decrease from west to east on Tuesday
as we settle into the slightly cooler and drier post-frontal air
mass. Temps will reach the mid- to upper-80s both days with
afternoon dew points in the refreshing mid-50s by Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday...The next cold front is set to pass late
Wednesday/early Thursday. This will bring in a cooler air mass
and limit highs each day to the low- to mid-80s across the
coastal plain. The beaches will hang back in the 70s. The
forecast remains dry until the end of the weekend when the next
potent shortwave introduces slight chance (20-25%) PoPs across
the area. It should be noted, however, that other shortwaves
will be embedded within the flow prior to the one on Sunday, and
it`s possible that PoPs trend up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

 - Multiple rounds of TSRA possible over the next 24 hrs

A cluster of TSRA is moving through Eastern NC at this time
with gusty winds to 40kt. Occasionally, there have been a few
stronger cores with higher gusts (potentially as high as 50kt).
A general weakening trend is expected over the next 1-3 hours.
Attention then turns to another cluster of TSRA back to the west
in the TN Valley, and whether or not that will hold together to
the coast. If so, there would be another risk of strong wind
gusts of 40kt+. Another scenario is that those TSRA weaken as
they cross the southern Appalachians, with additional TSRA
developing from the SW, moving NE across the area. Stay tuned
for updates through Monday evening. It should be noted that in
the 2nd scenario mentioned above, there would be a greater risk
for 50kt+ wind gusts, hail, and maybe even a tornado. Where TSRA
occur, there will also be an increased risk of sub-VFR
conditions.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Monday night with a drying trend setting up after that. Periods
of sub-VFR conditions are to be expected but flight cats should
remain VFR outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 10 PM Sun...Latest obs show light SE-S winds 5-10 kt with
seas 1-2 ft. Winds will begin to pick up a bit overnight,
increasing to 5-15 kt. Gradient tightens Monday ahead of the
cold front, with SSW winds increasing to 15-25 kt and seas
building to 3-4 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Have issued
SCAs for the coastal waters and sounds beginning Mon afternoon.
Sct showers and storms expected Mon, may bring stronger to
severe storms late Mon.

Pesky dense sea fog along the northern Outer Banks has finally
dissipated this afternoon. However, several of the high res
models bring back it back this evening and overnight. Think
this is too pessimistic with winds picking up, so just kept some
patchy fog wording...though locally dense sea fog will be
possible, mainly waters north of Oregon Inlet.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...SW flow 15-25 kt by Monday night with seas
3-6 ft. Conditions improve Tuesday with SW flow returning to
10-15 kt and seas decreasing to 2-4 ft. 10 kt winds wobble
between northwesterly and southwesterly on Wednesday. Another
front late Wednesday/early Thursday will turn 10 kt winds
northwesterly by morning and northeasterly by evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...CQD/OJC