Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241340
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
940 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in early this week. Another coastal low is
becoming increasingly likely mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 940 AM Sun...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for morning update. An upper level shortwave will move
away from the Southeast coast today, and get replaced by upper
level ridging. Beneath the shortwave, moderate height falls will
support a deepening low out over the western Atlantic.
Meanwhile, beneath the upper ridging, SFC high pressure will
build south along the lee of the Appalachians. While the
deepening low will be moving away from the coast, the gradient
between the two features will keep winds up through the day
today. The tightest gradient, and strongest winds, will be this
morning. This will also coincide with modest mixing, with
widespread 25-35 mph wind gusts continuing into the early
afternoon hours. Along the OBX, the gradient will be the
strongest, and winds will continue to gust to 40-45+ mph.
Guidance has come down some with winds there, but it`s close
enough to keep the Wind Advisory going. The only real change to
the forecast for today was to go lower with temps today thanks
to continued CAA and a cooler northeasterly flow. Highs today in
the upper 40s to mid 50s, coolest across the NE forecast area
and Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...The main forecast challenge tonight will
be winds and any frost/freeze potential. 18z/00z guidance has
trended a bit quicker with the eastward progression of low
pressure out over the western Atlantic, which consequently opens
the door for high pressure to edge further east a bit quicker
as well. With this in mind, there may be enough of a relaxed
pressure gradient west of HWY 11 to allow temps to fall into the
low-mid 30s. Probabilistic guidance gives about a 60-80% chance
of temps falling below 36 across the coastal plain. However,
the question is how light will the winds get. Factoring in the
winds gives a lower probability of seeing frost. Given the
faster eastward trend mentioned above with the pressure
gradient, it appears the risk of frost is increasing. In light
of this, and in collab with surrounding offices, we will be
hoisting a Frost Advisory for our furthest inland row of
counties (Duplin County northeast through Martin County). Of
note, where/if winds go calm, the risk of freezing temps would
be higher, and it`s not out of the realm of possibility that a
Freeze Warning may be needed, with an expansion of the Frost
Advisory. For now, the Advisory will highlight the counties with
the greatest risk of frost/freeze impacts. East of HWY 11, the
pressure gradient should keep the risk of frost/freeze lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sun...Canadian high pressure remains entrenched
along the eastern seaboard to kick off the work week, lingering
through Tuesday. As is typical in northeasterly flow regimes,
high temperatures will vary widely across the area from mid to
upper 60s along and south of Highway 70 to the low to mid
50s along the northern Outer Banks. Low pressure will continue
to meander offshore, keeping elevated northerly winds in place
along the Outer Banks into early next week and promoting ongoing
coastal flooding and beach hazard concerns for areas
particularly north of Cape Hatteras - see the TIDES/COASTAL
FLOOD section for details.

Next round of inclement weather will be mid to late week.
Deepening low pressure over the central plains in response to a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will drag a slow-moving cold
front towards the Carolinas Tuesday night into Wednesday,
eventually stalling over the area by mid-week. The frontal
boundary will likely have an increase of clouds and some modest
shower activity although best lift will be displaced well to our
west.

The bigger concern  is a second s/w trough forecast to
pivot across the Gulf states and become negatively tilted, which
will drive robust cyclogenesis along the surface boundary. 00z
ensemble guidance this morning continues to trend towards
coastal low development instead of a clean frontal passage, and
members are also coming into better temporal agreement. The
largest question mark remaining is where the frontal boundary
stalls and therefore where the offshore low will track. The risk
of heavy rainfall, strong winds and renewed coastal impacts
continue to increase for mid-week, but their severity remains
uncertain. Increased winds and PoPs from the prior forecast,
focusing the heaviest rainfall overnight Wednesday into
Thursday, and the strongest winds Thursday night into Friday.

Dry weather returns for next weekend as high pressure builds
back over the area from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Monday/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty N to NE winds through this afternoon

2) Lingering MVFR CIGs for a few hours early this morning

FORECAST DETAILS

Gusty N to NE winds of 25-40kt are ongoing this morning across
all of Eastern NC on the far western periphery of low pressure
deepening out over the western Atlantic. The deepening low, plus
high pressure building south into the Carolinas, will keep a
modest gradient going into this afternoon. However, with time,
the gradient will gradually relax some as the low starts to pull
further away from the coast. This will allow winds to gradually
decrease, becoming light by this evening. Along the coast,
especially the OBX, gusty winds will linger the longest into
this evening. For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail
through the 12z TAF cycle. The one exception is along the Outer
Banks where MVFR CIGs will last for another few hours this
morning.

Of note, for EWN, the northerly winds could result in crosswind
impacts for runway 1432 through this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 410 AM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through Tuesday
as high pressure builds in from the north, but strong northerly
winds will persist particularly for coastal locales. Cold front
approaches the terminals late Tuesday into Wednesday morning
with a risk of showers, with a more potent coastal low impacting
the area late Wed night into Thursday and bringing another
period of sub-VFR flight conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 940 AM Sun...Dangerous marine conditions continue. Latest
obs show very strong N winds 25-35 kt with gusts 35-40 kt and
seas 10-15 kt north of Ocracoke and 6-11 ft south. Strong NNE
winds and dangerous seas will continue today. Low pressure
deepening out over the western Atlantic will keep winds and seas
up through tonight, and beyond. Of note, however, gale-force
winds will gradually lay down for inland rivers and sounds as
high pressure attempts to build in from the north and west
tonight. For the coastal waters, an extended period of elevated
winds and seas will continue further into the week.

The ongoing marine headlines continue to capture the event
well, and no significant changes were needed with this forecast
update. However, some adjustments to ending times will likely be
needed based on the latest guidance.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 415 AM Sun...Dangerous marine conditions will continue
through the long term period. Canadian high pressure builds over
the Carolinas from the north, but with low pressure continuing
to meander offshore strong northeasterly flow will be slow to
ease. Gusts of 25+ knot will likely continue into Tuesday
morning particularly for offshore waters. Focus then turns to
the end of the week as a cold front approaches the waters, with
a coastal low then developing and lifting across the area.
Details on low track and intensity remain uncertain, but a
return of widespread Gales appears likely especially Thu night
into Friday.

The persistent northerly fetch will keep seas dangerously high
with the worst conditions lasting through Tuesday morning -
8-12 feet from Cape Lookout northward, and up to 15 feet for the
waters beyond 15 nm. Seas will be slow to fall through the
week, and SCA conditions may not break before the next coastal
low approaches the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 630 AM Sunday...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl)
remain in effect though late Monday night for ocean side
locations north of Cape Hatteras and southern portions of the
Pamlico Sound, Core Sound and lower Neuse River. A Coastal Flood
Advisory (1-2 ft agl) remains in effect for areas adj to the
southern Albemarle Sound and Alligator Rvr for the northerly
surge tonight into Monday.

NCDOT has reported that NC 12 on the northern end of Ocracoke
Island is closed due to ocean overwash and dangerous driving
conditions. Hatteras to Ocracoke ferry service has been
suspended until further notice. Other oceanside areas with
vulnerable dune structure may also be impacted and impassable at
times, esp around high tide.

High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to
large, breaking waves and wave runup. North of Cape Hatteras,
the advisory will run through Wednesday morning as persistent
northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along the
beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 10-15 feet.

Although details are murkier, another coastal low could impact
the area at the end of the work week with another round of
strong winds and coastal flooding possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ029-044-079-090-091.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ045>047.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ047-196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ094-194-
     196-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/CQD/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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