848
FXUS62 KMHX 060811
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
411 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A
strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move
through Friday and Friday evening, with drier conditions this
weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 355 AM Thu...Mid-level heights beginning to fall over
eastern North Carolina as a developing wave of low pressure
takes shape over the Ohio Valley ahead of an approaching mid-
level shortwave and attendant elongated upper low over south
central Canada. Attendant cold front is draped roughly from Ohio
southwestward along the western Appalachians, while a pre-
frontal trough is oriented roughly along or just west of the
I-95 corridor.

Very warm and humid start to the day is expected as temperatures
climb into the 90s and dew points hover around the 70 degree
mark through this afternoon. In addition to driving heat indices
near 100 degrees, instability will markedly increase to an
average of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE (although values of 2500+ are
not out of the question). With heights continuing to gradually
fall with the approaching shortwave trough, airmass will be
increasingly supportive of convective development this
afternoon.

There will be two focal points of convective initiation - the
first along the sea breeze early this afternoon, focused along
the Crystal Coast and gradually shifting inland. The second area
will be along the pre-frontal trough, where more organized
convective clusters are likely with better dynamics associated
with the shortwave trough. These storms will approach the
coastal plain from the west late this afternoon into the early
evening. Outflow boundary interactions between storms will
likely fuel additional isolated cell development outside of
these two features. Forecast shear over our area is not expected
to exceed 20 kt, which points to a very low risk of organized
severe storms. Still, with this unstable of an airmass a few
isolated strong cells capable of microbursts are possible.
Torrential rainfall is also a threat given PWATs near 2"
areawide. Given dry antecedent conditions, the risk of flash
flooding is low outside of typically vulnerable (low-lying and
urban) locations.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 405 AM Thu...Cold front will continue to approach the
area overnight. Convective clusters associated with the pre-
frontal trough will likely be ongoing although instability will
be waning through the overnight hours. CAMs point to this
cluster of activity pushing off the coast of the Outer Banks
overnight. Once the main cold front begins to cross into the
coastal plain early Friday morning, one last broken band of
frontally-forced showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to
develop with CAMS favoring this activity grazing the Crystal
Coast and offshore locations in the pre-dawn hours. A severe
risk is not anticipated with this activity, although the threat
of torrential rainfall will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...The cold front will move through Friday,
finally pushing offshore Friday evening. Mostly dry with a more
comfortable airmass expected this weekend. Another front will
likely push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms.

Friday through Sunday...The front will move through Friday,
finally pushing offshore Friday evening. Isolated showers and
storms may linger along the coast through the day, with
seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak boundary in
the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal along the east
coast through the weekend with weak high pressure building in,
keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable airmass expected
over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and
high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Still some uncertainty heading
into next week, but starting to come into better focus with much
better agreement in the global guidance. A front will move
through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances
for sct showers and storms. Upper troughing will continue over
the eastern US, with weak high pressure building in and
potential for weak coastal troughing along the SE coast Mon
through Wed. Will continue with temps and pops near climo
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 150 AM Thu...VFR conditions in place over area terminals
this morning with breezy and moist southerly winds as cold front
approaches from the west. Only appreciable risk of sub-VFR cigs
will be along the southern coast pre-dawn with a risk of
periodic MVFR strato-cu, although heights will be no lower than
2 kft.

Main concern for aviation interests will be convection, with two
rounds likely. First will be focused closer to the Crystal Coast
with iso to widely sct sea breeze convection, posing a risk
mainly for OAJ and EWN after 17-18z. Second threat will be
clusters of cells originally developing along the inland thermal
trough, encroaching on the coastal plain from the west late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Iso thunderstorm risk will
carry into the late evening hours with likely low-level boundary
interactions in a sufficiently unstable airmass. A few stronger
storms cannot be ruled out, especially for any activity north of
a line from HSE-EWN-GWW.

Breezy south to southwesterly winds expected this afternoon with
gusts to 15-20 kt, with a few infrequent gusts to 25 kt possible
across the inner coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 410 AM Thu...Deteriorating boating conditions expected
over area waters today ahead of an approaching cold front
currently just west of the Appalachians this morning. Regional
observations show widespread southwesterly winds of 15-20 kts
with the strongest winds over the Pamlico Sound, reaching 20-25
kt at times. Offshore, seas are slowly building to 3-4 feet in
response.

As cold front approaches area waters this afternoon, pressure
gradient will tighten further with more widespread Sw winds of
20-25 kt, particularly for offshore waters and the Pamlico
Sound. Strongest winds are likely after 21z and will begin to
ease after 06z as the front begins to push across the coastal
plain. Seas will continue to build through Fri morning, reaching
up to 6 feet across portions of Raleigh Bay especially beyond
10-15 nm.

SCA headlines were left intact from the previous forecast with
only a few minor adjustments to lengthen expiration times.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...The cold front will move through Friday and
Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Fri night and Sat
5-15 kt. Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of
another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday
evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft Fri afternoon and
cont through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS