546
FXUS62 KMHX 070708
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through today and this evening,
with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front
will move through Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...Very warm and humid evening with temps
in the upper 80s inland, upper 70s along the coast and Tds in
the low to mid 70s. Unstable air mass is in place, with fcst
MLCAPE of >2kJ/kg and the approaching shortwave trough adding
some better upper level forcing to the mix. This will result in
an airmass increasingly supportive of convective development
through the evening into tonight. Typically instability quickly
drops off after sunset, but the organized nature of the forcing
could allow for storms to continue through midnight before
beginning to taper off in coverage and intensity.

The primary focal point of storms will be ahead of the main
front itself, where more organized convective clusters are
likely with better dynamics associated with the shortwave
trough. These storms have entered the coastal plain from the W
early this evening. Outflow boundary interactions between storms
will potentially fuel additional isolated cell development
ahead of this feature. Forecast bulk shear over our area is not
expected to exceed 20 kt with minimal turning, which points to a
very low risk of organized severe storms. Still, with this
unstable of an airmass a few isolated strong cells capable of
microbursts are possible. Torrential rainfall is also a threat
given PWATs near 2" areawide. Given dry antecedent conditions,
the risk of flash flooding is low outside of typically
vulnerable (low-lying and urban) locations.

Cold front will continue to approach the area overnight.
Convective clusters associated with the front will likely be
ongoing although instability will be waning through the
overnight hours. CAMs point to this cluster of activity pushing
off the coast of the Outer Banks overnight. Once the main cold
front begins to cross into the coastal plain early Friday
morning, one last broken band of frontally-forced showers and a
few thunderstorms are likely to develop with CAMS favoring this
activity grazing the Crystal Coast and offshore locations in the
pre-dawn hours. Low-end severe risk is possible with this
activity, although the threat of torrential rainfall will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1545 Thursday....The front will move through the Coastal
Plain through the day Friday, finally pushing offshore Friday
evening in conjunction with the shortwave trough axis aloft
swinging through. Expect showers associated with the prefrontal
trough to be all offshore during the morning. Isolated showers
and storms become possible again for areas along the coast in
the afternoon. The seabreeze is expected to remain pinned to the
coast by Werly winds in the afternoon and weak boundary in the
vicinity could lead to enough convergence to warrant carrying
SChc PoPs. Slightly cooler Ts than Thurs with markedly lower Tds
sinking into the low 60s, maybe even mid to upper 50s, behind
the front. Highs in the upper 80s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another
front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast
Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the
guidance.

Friday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable
airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s
Sun.

Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through
Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct
showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night
through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance.
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with
potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development
Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter
solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid
week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty,
will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while
incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but
capping at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 140 AM Fri...VFR conditions prevail across eastern NC this
morning outside of persistent convective activity. Keeping an
eye on a reinvigoration of a broken band of showers and
thunderstorms stretching from EDE southwestward to DPL,
advancing eastward with isolated cells developing ahead of this
line as well. These will pose a near term threat to OAJ and EWN
through 07z, while PGV and ISO are on the more stable side of
this line and will deal mainly with RA, although an occasional
lightning strike or two is possible. For all terminals,
convective threat will end by 09-10z as pre-frontal trough
swings offshore.

Second round of mainly isolated convection is possible this
afternoon along the seabreeze, although with more westerly to
west-northwesterly flow aloft activity will migrate little from
the coast. OAJ and EWN have the best chance of being impacted,
while coastal plain terminals remain dry. Any activity will
quickly collapse with loss of heating, with skies becoming clear
by Fri evening.

Breezy westerly winds will gust to 15+ kt at times particularly
across the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...SW Gusts of 25-30kt continue for
Pamlico Sound and nearshore OBX where the thermal gradient is
the strongest. Winds are trending a bit lower Friday morning,
and as a result the SCA`s currently out might have to be
cancelled a few hours earlier than planned. Not enough
confidence at this point to change the end times, but it is
something worth keeping an eye on.

Previous Discussion...As of 1545 Thursday...Deteriorating
boating conditions expected over area waters today ahead of an
approaching cold front currently entering the Wern reaches of
NC. Regional observations show widespread SWerly winds of
15-20G25kts with the strongest winds over the Pamlico Sound
where the thermal gradient is strongest. Offshore, seas have
slowly built to 3-4 feet in response.

As cold front approaches area waters tonight, pressure gradient
will tighten further with more widespread SWerly winds of 20-25
kt, particularly for offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound.
Strongest winds are likely after 21z and will begin to ease
after 06z as the front begins to push across the coastal plain.
Seas will continue to build through Fri morning, reaching up to
6 feet across portions of Raleigh Bay especially beyond 10-15
nm.

SCA headlines were adjusted to acct for latest wind forecast.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Light to moderate N-NW winds Sat 5-15 kt.
Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold
front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening,
with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday
morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will be possible with
potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts. Winds will grad
diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat and Sun, building
to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and low pressure area
may impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given
the spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency,
confidence remains low through mid week. SCA conditions will be
possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...MS/CQD
MARINE...CEB/RJ/CQD