827
FXUS62 KMHX 191721
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
121 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of
the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal
system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 115 PM Sunday... Made no significant changes to the
forecast for this afternoon as mostly cloudy skies and cool
temps will continue.

Prev Disc...Lingering line of light rain is currently along a
weak, elevated back door cold front mainly north of hwy 264 and
east of hwy 17, slowly moving east- southeast and dissipating
over the next few hours. NE flow kept lows near 60 inland and
for NOBX, increasing to the mid 60s at the Crystal Coast.
Instability remains non- existent with NE flow, but weak forcing
is anticipated in the afternoon as an elevated back door cold
front treks through the region from the north. For this reason,
a few pop up weak showers are possible in the afternoon and
evening Sunday, particularly near the Crystal Coast. Minimal QPF
is expected from these showers. This has been handled by Schc
PoPs for light showers south of hwy 264 where the moisture
profile is a bit more impressive, and no mentionable PoPs to the
north. With low level clouds decreasing for the coastal plain
in the afternoon, we should warm up to near 70 inland despite
the cooling NE flow. Coolest spot will be NOBX where the NE flow
and stubborn cloud cover keeps temps near or just above 60 for
the high Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Quiet night in store with dry conditions
and lows in the mid to upper 50s. While winds lighten over
inland ENC, the low offshore paired with the high building in
from the north keeps OBX and Inner Banks breezy through the
night. Low level cloud cover starts building in from the north
and east through the night

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the
first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the
west toward the latter half of the week.

Monday...High pres noses into ENC, while low pres spins well off
the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting
in from the Atlantic on cont nerly flow, keeping temps cooler
than climo, and cont mo cloudy skies. Highs range from the mid
60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday,
along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in
the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise
through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may
flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to
start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Saturday...Next potential weather maker in the
form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive
by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region
with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of
disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the
afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil
shower chances overnight and morning periods.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 115 PM Sunday.. Much of ENC is under MVFR ceilings as of
this update with the OBX being the lone holdout under IFR
ceilings as expected. Steady NE`rly winds at 10-15 kts with
gusts up around 15-20 kts and MVFR ceilings are forecast to
continue through much of the afternoon across ENC with VFR
conditions and light winds finally returning to the Coastal
Plain by late afternoon with MVFR ceilings returning to the OBX
during this timeframe.

As we get into tonight the forecast will become slightly more
complicated. Current thinking is that with light NE`rly flow
continuing to pump in ample low level moisture from the
Atlantic into the FA,this moisture will become trapped
underneath a low level inversion allowing ceilings once again
lower from NE to SW down to IFR/MVFR levels. How far inland this
low stratus gets is still up for debate but highest confidence
in low ceilings remain across the OBX with lower confidence as
we go further south and west across ENC. In addition to this if
the Coastal Plain is less cloudy than currently forecast than
there will be a chance for some patchy fog at times mainly after
06Z tonight. Given the lack of confidence in getting fog, left
this out of the TAFs for now and capped ceilings at MVFR with a
SCT IFR deck at all the terminals given uncertainty with
ceilings. Will need to monitor trends in future updates to see
how things go tonight. By Mon morning any low ceilings and
lowered vis will quickly lift allowing for VFR conditions
across much of the area outside the OBX by mid morning at the
latest.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through
mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or
lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon
night, as nerly flow cont.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Gusty NE`rly flow from the low offshore
and high building in from the north result in wind gusts near 25
kts and building seas through the short term. Small craft
advisories are in place for all waters but the Pamlico River for
Sunday into Monday to account for this NE`rly surge. Seas will
be at 5-7ft for the coastal waters off of Hatteras Island and
Ocracoke through the short term, highest in the vicinity of the
Gulf Stream

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound
and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds
keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft
Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long
fetch nerly winds diminish.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RJ