439
FXUS62 KMHX 250209
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1009 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Fri...Multiple boundaries remain over ENC this
evening with a surface trough located along the Coastal Plain
resulting in a few areas of showers and weak thunderstorms with
a bit more coverage at this hour than initially expected this
evening. Latest radar imagery shows rain and thunderstorms
blossoming along the Crystal Coast and Downeast with additional
rain and thunderstorm activity noted across portions of Martin
Washington and Beaufort County. This activity has brought a fair
amount of rain to the region with 1 to 2 inches of rain already
fallen and another inch or so likely before it moves out. As a
result had issued a flood advisory for these areas which is
valid until 12:15 AM tonight. Otherwise made no changes to the
rest of the forecast as everything looks to be tracking well as
we continue to monitor the chance for fog development later
tonight.

Prev Disc...Convection will begin to wane with loss of heating
this evening, grad pushing off the coast late. Other forecast
challenge overnight remains the fog and/or stratus potential.
Most guidance continues to show fog and low stratus spreading
from NE to SW overnight as weak boundary moves in and low level
flow becomes light N/NEly. Patchy dense fog will be possible,
though confidence is low at this time. However given the most
recent trends have kept fog and low clouds in the forecast for
now and will have to monitor trends tonight. Have low temps
getting into the 60s tonight as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Weak boundary/trough and low pressure will
grad shift off the coast through the day. Main change to
previous forecast was to lower pops more towards climo, with
most of the 12z CAMs coming in much drier. Environment will
still be supportive of diurnal convection with SB CAPEs up to
1500 J/kg, though shear will be the limiting factor, bulk shear
10-20 kt. Still expecting scattered diurnal convection to
develop with best chances likely focused along the seabreeze.
With weak boundary and low pressure over the area, light onshore
winds may support low clouds and patchy fog lingering along the
Outer Banks through much of the day. Highs in the mid/upper 70s
for the beaches and mid/upper 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Periods of thunderstorms through Tuesday

 - Above to well above normal temps Sunday and Monday

 - Trending drier and not as hot mid to late-week

An anomalous mid/upper level ridge will extend west to east from
Mexico to Florida through the middle of next week, with a mostly
zonal flow aloft to the north across the southern US. Within this
flow, several shortwaves originating over the Plains will traverse
the Carolinas, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass,
producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. In this type of
setup, thunderstorms are possible just about anytime of day or
night, and will be highly dependent on the track and timing of each
wave that moves through, as well as any impact from the previous
day`s convection. Each day, guidance suggests MLCAPE as high as 1000-
2000j/kg, with deep layer shear of 25-35kt. This shear/instability
combination is at least marginally conducive to severe weather, and
this is something we`ll have to keep an eye on each day. At the
moment, it appears that Sunday and Monday may carry the best
potential for a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms (thanks to
the potential for higher instability and slightly higher shear).
Additionally, Monday should feature stronger forcing, which may also
aid in the thunderstorm/severe risk.

A cold front is forecast to move through Monday night, but this may
not completely shut down the thunderstorm risk right away. Some
guidance has trended a bit slower with the front, with the potential
for a wave to ride up along the front on Tuesday with another chance
of showers and thunderstorms. There isn`t yet a solid signal for
additional precip on Tuesday, but something to watch. Eventually, a
strong upper level trough is forecast to move through, providing
more of a clean sweep of low-level moisture and instability. This
will also usher in lower temperatures. Some areas inland may see
lows back in the 50s for a day or two late next week.

Prior to the arrival of the lower temps and dewpoints, there will be
a period of above to well above normal temps through Monday thanks
to warm low-level thicknesses and, in the absence of thunderstorms,
strong heating. This appears supportive of highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s inland, with low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Near-record warm lows are possible,
especially Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 735 PM Fri... Have a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings and vis
across the terminals this evening as weakening showers and
tstms continue to work their way through the area. Any leftover
shower and tstm activity should quickly diminish within the
next 2-3 hours across the terminals as daytime heating ends.
Much like the previous update, better signal for fog and stratus
development late tonight into early Sat morning. There is
potential for several hours of IFR between 6-12z, with highest
probabilities at PGV, ISO and EWN. Conditions will return to VFR
by mid Sat morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions could linger
through much of the day east of the terminals, mainly over the
Outer Banks. Otherwise winds will continue to remain light
across ENC through Saturday with light and variable winds
tonight becoming more N`rly by Sat morning.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...There will be an increased risk of TSRA
and accompanying sub- VFR conditions through early next week.
Gusty southerly winds can be expected as well, especially on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3
ft. Winds will shift tonight into Saturday as weak boundary and
low pressure push into the area. Light and variable winds 10 kt
or less expected Sat, mainly N/NE north of Lookout and S/SW
south. Seas 1-3 ft into Sat. Scattered tstms possible through
the first part of tonight, with more isolated chances Saturday.
Some storms have the potential for moderate to heavy rain,
lightning, gusty winds and hail.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Approaching Small Craft conditions Monday/Monday night

 - Periods of thunderstorms through early next week

Several upper level waves will move through the ENC coastal waters
through early next week. Each wave will bring with it a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger wave, and associated cold
front, then moves through Monday/Monday night. Southerly winds will
increase to 15-20kt ahead of this front, and may approach 25kt for
some waters. Right now, though, the risk of widespread 25kt winds
appears low (<10% chance). Seas of 1-3 ft over the weekend will
increase to 3-4 ft Monday with the building winds. The highest seas
are expected south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/CQD