648
FXUS62 KMHX 051755
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
155 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing
continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days,
but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before
an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather
back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the
beginning of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 950 AM Sun...Still an unsettled morning across the Inner
Banks as band of showers migrates along a now-stalled surface
trough draped from Raleigh Bay northward to the Albemarle-
Pamlico Peninsula. Weak wave of low pressure migrating along a
stalled frontal boundary aided by a weak shortwave aloft will
continue to push eastward into the afternoon. Surface
destabilization is also evident on satellite as cu field has
quickly taken shape in what few clear spots remained around
sunrise.

Prior analysis still holds with 3 main focuses of precip
activity today -

1) the ongoing precip along the surface trough

2) this afternoon shower and tstorm activity further increasing
from the W this afternoon with the support of a passing
shortwave

3) Despite the cloudiness, a weak seabreeze originating over
the Crystal Coast this afternoon which could spark some
showers/tstorms along it as it moves inland

Iso- sct showers remain possible elsewhere. Chc PoPs cover the
area through the morning with a period of LKLY in the afternoon
for the far Wern edge of the FA. CAPE will be sufficient but
shear will be lacking once again, so tstorms remain possible but
the severe threat is low. Mostly cloudy to OVC skies expected
through the day due to convection and debris clouds which will
limit MaxTs Sunday; approaching 80 away from the coast, low 70s
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 0345 Sunday...SFC high off the NECONUS gets shunted S by a
front working through New England tonight which will slowly
veer winds through the period to become SSWerly in the early
morning hours MON. Precip potential wanes overnight with mid
and upper level flow becoming more zonal as high shifts Sward.
However, moisture content remains relatively high, near the 90th
percentile of climatology which means that ISO to widely SCT
showers cannot be completely ruled out. Mostly Serly flow and
mostly cloudy skies keeps MinTs warm and muggy, generally mid
60s, upper 60s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first
half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast
and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier
conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong
frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area
late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a
combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly
flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will
target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper
70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level
riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level
thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid
conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low
90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will
again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming
across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive
environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm
development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which
troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip
chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on
Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the
Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass
will persist, and the initial impression of this weather
pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with
potential for a significant event if all ingredients come
together. That being said, much can change at this time scale
but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or
early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with
highs near to just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 155 PM Sun...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with iso to sct showers and storms to both the
west and east of terminals ahead of a weak wave of low pressure
and decaying surface trough, respectively. Convective coverage
is forecast to gradually increase through the rest of the
afternoon, with the highest coverage concentrated across the
inner coastal plain as low pressure continues to lift northeast.
Locally heavy rain could bring brief periods of sub-MVFR
conditions, but otherwise predominantly VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Convective coverage will wane through
00-03z.

Trend for IFR conditions has continued to step back through
today, although signal for at least MVFR cigs across the coastal
plain remains strong especially after 06z tonight. Conditions
will gradually improve through Mon morning from east to west,
although threat of showers and thunderstorms will return by 18z
Mon.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day
except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions
each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0400 Sunday...Winds slowly veer through the short term,
SEerly 10-15kt through the morning, Serly overnight still
10-15kt but outer waters near GStream 15-20kt. Seas will be 2-4
ft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early
this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with
Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the
coastal waters.

Winds Monday will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase
to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen
slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across
the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase
further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front,
and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will
then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas
will develop across portions of the coastal waters through
Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to
strengthening winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/CEB