Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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116 FXUS62 KMHX 170618 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 218 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure briefly builds overhead to end the work-week with another unsettled weekend ahead with low pressure system impacting the area into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 200 AM Friday...Upper ridging continues to build in from the SW tonight, resulting in mostly clear skies and calm winds for much of mainland ENC. Sern and Wern zones currently forecast to see some patchy fog develop in the early morning hours with clearing skies and decoupling winds allowing decent rad cooling and ample SFC moisture from the rainfall we`ve had the last two days providing the fuel. Currently not expecting widespread dense fog, but select sheltered spots could see periods of dense fog. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s for beaches. High cirrus is moving in from the west, which will help keep temps from dropping any lower than the forecasted lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday...No major changes with the forecast. Area of highest moisture convergence and instability in the afternoon and evening Friday continues to be Duplin/Onslow/Jones/Lenoir counties as the sea breeze advances. Previous Discussion...As of 1515 Thursday...Ridging crests over the area Friday but shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers during the afternoon, generally along the seabreeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be meager with MUCAPE less than 1kJ/kg and the ridging aloft keeping kinematics less than impressive, in turn limiting any severe potential, however a rumble of thunder or two can`t be ruled out. MaxTs a few ticks warmer than Thursday for inland zones, low 80s most. Cooler Ts expected along the coast where marine air will be felt as the seabreeze penetrates further inland than Thurs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Regarding the unsettled weather this weekend, deterministic, ensemble, and analog guidance all show at least a weak to modest signal for severe weather, especially on Saturday. The signal isn`t as strong on Sunday, but is still present. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked all of Eastern NC in a "Marginal" risk of severe weather for Saturday, and this seems reasonable given all of the above. Of note, one potential complicating factor is the evolution of a warm front Friday night into Saturday, which could support an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning. If this occurs, it could have an impact on how much instability can develop later in the day and into the evening. The key message here is to be aware of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. We`ll continue to refine the risk area and potential hazards in the coming couple of days. Previous Discussion...High pressure will be across the area Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds back in toward the middle of next week. Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period. Beneficial rainfall is expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1.5-2" with locally higher amounts possible. Monday through Wednesday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers into Monday but expect dry conditions into Wednesday. A mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaches the area late Wednesday but moisture looks limited at this time with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 200 AM Friday...Shallow fog development has begun for OAJ, fluctuating between IFR and MVFR categories. Remainder of TAF terminals are currently VFR. Southern regions of the CWA (KOAJ) are where most of the rain has fallen over the past 2 days. The presence of ground moisture in this region and calm winds result in an increasing chance of fog formation through 12Z. OBX will be experiencing sub-VFR ceilings through the morning extending from the deepening low offshore. After fog subsides this morning, we have a slight chance of thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the sea breeze this afternoon and evening. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 PM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday but could see isolated showers during the afternoon bringing brief periods of sub-VFR. A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 1515 Thursday...Seas continue subsiding from 2-4ft presently becoming 2-3ft overnight. Winds currently light and variable. Overnight, winds S of Hatt become predominantly Werly 10-15kt with Nern waters seeing NNEerly winds around 10-12kt. These Nerly winds continue working S down the coast to become Nerly 5-10kt S of Hatt, Nerly 10-15G20kt N of Hatt in the early morning hours. Seas respond to winds Fri becoming 2-4ft from N to S, 3-5ft over outer central waters. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 315 PM Thursday...High pressure will be over the waters Friday with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft, but could be locally higher near the Gulf Stream. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop sometime Sunday and continue into early next week with N to NE winds as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/RJ MARINE...SK/CEB