180
FXUS62 KMHX 050703
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north overnight
while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast through
Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west
Thursday and move through Friday bringing slightly cooler and
drier conditions over the weekend. Another frontal system will
likely impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this
update as there will remain an isolated threat for a few
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder through daybreak across
ENC. Otherwise expecting generally muggy and warm conditions
tonight as a weak backdoor cold front eventually begins to lift
north as a warm front.

Prev Disc...Upper ridging continues over the Eastern
Seaboard with sfc high pressure residing off the Southeast
Coast. A weak backdoor front that pushed into NE sections of the
FA today is already beginning to dissipate/retreat back
northward evident by winds veering to S to SE. Isolated
showers/tstms that occurred across the area this afternoon have
for the most part dissipated as we lose daytime heating but
still seeing isolated showers across the western Albemarle Sound
in the vicinity of the aforementioned remnant front. Expect
mainly dry conditions overnight but several models do show
isolated showers which could develop along lingering boundaries
as a moist and conditionally unstable environment persists
across the area, so will maintain slt chance PoPs across portion
of the area, mainly north of highway 70. It will be a warm
muggy night with lows around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...Guidance continues to trend drier, so PoPs
have been cut back once again. Like today, any shower or
thunderstorm development will be isolated to widely scattered
with a low but non-zero severe threat. MLCAPE will be marginal
(500-1000 J/kg) but winds will respond to the incoming upper-
level trough and create slightly better shear today (20-25 kt).
Temps will be toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal
plain and mid-80s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a cold front. The
front will move through Friday. Mostly dry with more comfortable
temps expected this weekend. Another frontal system will likely
impact the area early next week with increasing rain chances.

Thursday...Still looks like an active day as upper trough and
strong cold front approach the area. Sct showers and iso tstm
potential in the morning, with chances increasing through the
day with better forcing and moisture ahead of the front.
Similar to the last few days, will be moist and unstable though
weak shear will continue to limit the overall svr threat.
However, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small
hail will be possible. PWATs will approach 2 inches for most of
the area, so moderate to locally heavy rain also possible. An
increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees
for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...The front will move through Friday.
Isolated showers and storms may linger along the coast through
the day, with seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak
boundary in the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal
along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure
building in, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions
across eastern NC. A more comfortable airmass expected over the
weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high
temps in the 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...Still a high amount of uncertainty early
next week, with the potential for another frontal system to
impact the area. The GFS is the more progressive model pushing a
front through Sunday night/early Mon, while the EC is the
slower/stronger/wetter solution. Will continue to cap pops at
chance given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this
update as the forecast calls for predominantly VFR conditions
through the TAF period outside of mainly diurnally driven
showers and storms, though cannot rule out an isolated shower
through daybreak today. While low levels remain nearly saturated
and winds will be light, ensemble guidance is showing fog
potential to be low, generally less than 15% chance. As we get
into the day on Wed SW`rly winds will be on the increase
generally persisting at 10-15 kts Wed afternoon with gusts up
near 20 kts at times. WInds then quickly decrease around sunset
back down to 5-10 kts.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Patchy MVFR cigs may linger across the
terminals through mid morning. Scattered to numerous showers
and storms expected Thu afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front, which could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions return Friday into the weekend, behind the cold
front with weak high pressure building into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 845 PM Tuesday...A weak front across the northern waters
is dissipating/retreating back northward this evening while sfc
high pressure remains off the Southeast Coast. S to SW winds
around 5-15 kt across most waters this evening, except northern
waters where SE winds will persist for a few more hours before
veering to S and SW overnight. SW winds begin to increase to
around 10-20 kt Wednesday afternoon as gradients begin to
tighten in advance of a cold front and could see some gusts to
around 25 kt. Seas mainly 1-2 ft tonight will build to 2-3 ft
Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Gradient will continue to tighten Thursday
ahead of a cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with
SCA conditions likely for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound
through Thu night. Will be marginal for the Albemarle Sound, but
SCA may need to be extended. The cold front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds
becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15
kt. Moderate SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front.
Seas will build to building to 3-6 ft Thursday, subsiding to
2-4 ft Fri and cont into the weekend.

More uncertainty early next week with potential for another
frontal system to impact the area. SCA conditions possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RCF/CQD
MARINE...SK/OJC/CQD