915
FXUS62 KMHX 050459
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north overnight
while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast through
Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west
Thursday and move through Friday bringing slightly cooler and
drier conditions over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this
update as there will remain an isolated threat for a few showers
and maybe a rumble of thunder through daybreak across ENC.
Otherwise expecting generally muggy and warm conditions tonight
as a weak backdoor cold front eventually begins to lift north as
a warm front.

Prev Disc...Upper ridging continues over the Eastern
Seaboard with sfc high pressure residing off the Southeast
Coast. A weak backdoor front that pushed into NE sections of the
FA today is already beginning to dissipate/retreat back
northward evident by winds veering to S to SE. Isolated
showers/tstms that occurred across the area this afternoon have
for the most part dissipated as we lose daytime heating but
still seeing isolated showers across the western Albemarle Sound
in the vicinity of the aforementioned remnant front. Expect
mainly dry conditions overnight but several models do show
isolated showers which could develop along lingering boundaries
as a moist and conditionally unstable environment persists
across the area, so will maintain slt chance PoPs across portion
of the area, mainly north of highway 70. It will be a warm
muggy night with lows around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...Guidance continues to trend drier, so PoPs
have been cut back once again. Like today, any shower or
thunderstorm development will be isolated to widely scattered
with a low but non-zero severe threat. MLCAPE will be marginal
(500-1000 J/kg) but winds will respond to the incoming upper-
level trough and create slightly better shear today (20-25 kt).
Temps will be toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal
plain and mid-80s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will
strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front
approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday
into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the
weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next
week.

Thursday...Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday
afternoon and evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr
threat, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small
hail and heavy rain will be possible each day. An increase in
heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper
80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100
degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through
Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but
most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing
lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting
drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More
comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling
into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good
amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for
another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to
chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this
update as the forecast calls for predominantly VFR conditions
through the TAF period outside of mainly diurnally driven
showers and storms, though cannot rule out an isolated shower
through daybreak today. While low levels remain nearly saturated
and winds will be light, ensemble guidance is showing fog
potential to be low, generally less than 15% chance. As we get
into the day on Wed SW`rly winds will be on the increase
generally persisting at 10-15 kts Wed afternoon with gusts up
near 20 kts at times. WInds then quickly decrease around sunset
back down to 5-10 kts.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms continuing into
Thursday. This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to
the terminals. Sub- VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold
front will move through Fri and Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 845 PM Tuesday...A weak front across the northern waters
is dissipating/retreating back northward this evening while sfc
high pressure remains off the Southeast Coast. S to SW winds
around 5-15 kt across most waters this evening, except northern
waters where SE winds will persist for a few more hours before
veering to S and SW overnight. SW winds begin to increase to
around 10-20 kt Wednesday afternoon as gradients begin to
tighten in advance of a cold front and could see some gusts to
around 25 kt. Seas mainly 1-2 ft tonight will build to 2-3 ft
Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...SSW winds around 15-20 kt Wednesday night
will becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible
Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds
becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15
kt. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to
3-6 ft Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK/OJC