968
FXUS62 KMHX 120110
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
910 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level disturbance will move across the region tonight
with scattered showers and storms ending early this evening.
High pressure will ridge into the area Wednesday and Thursday
while an area of low pressure meanders off the Southeast coast.
The high pulls offshore Friday with a cold front pushing across
the area Saturday. High pressure builds in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM Tuesday...Convection from earlier today has almost
completely diminished early this evening due to the loss of
heating. Not expecting any redevelopment after 2Z or so as the
axis of the upper trough is offshore along with with the region
of best lift.

The upper trough will push farther offshore tonight while sfc
high pressure builds into the area. Clear skies and calm winds
could allow for patchy fog development however ensemble guidance
is showing less than impressive probabilities, but considering
the less than stellar performance of guidance with overnight fog
lately, have opted to include patchy fog in the forecast. Lows
will be in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1515 Tuesday...Dry day on deck with upper level flow
becoming more zonal behind the departing trough aloft, NW
downslope mid level flow bringing drier conditions across the
region with localized SFC high sliding offshore the NC/VA coast
through the period. Have below mentionable PoPs along the
afternoon seabreeze with much less upper level support relative
to today. Highs in the upper 80s most, upper 70s to low 80s
beaches but the lower Tds will make the AppTs a little cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday... Key Points:

- Dry Wednesday Night-Thursday night as high pressure
  dominates.

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday

- Minor heat risk concerns Saturday

- Cold front moves through in the weekend

- Dry start to next week

Wednesday Night and Thursday... Chances for fog Wed night and
Thur night with generally clear skies and calm winds. Highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, low to mid 80s for beaches.
Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday.

Further to our south, a plume of tropical moisture originating in
the Gulf of Mexico will traverse across the FL peninsula
Tuesday into Tuesday night along a shortwave. Wednesday into
Thursday the shortwave is expected to move NE`ward off the
SC/GA/FL coast, where it becomes a bit better organized and a
sfc low develops in between two areas of strong ridging.

Friday through Sunday... Complicated setup in store, with a weak low
meandering off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through
the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward,
likely along the gulf stream. Most models are showing the sfc
low far enough offshore for minimal impacts. However, the most
recent (6/11 00Z) GFS run has the low closer to the Crystal
Coast and OBX Friday, resulting in higher precip chances for the
coast and more hazardous marine conditions for our nearshore
coastal waters. Saturday, temps will reach the mid 90s inland,
which combined with Tds in the mid 70s will result in minor heat
risk concerns. Current forecasted ApparentT is near 100 degrees
for inland areas south of hwy 264. A mostly dry cold front
(capped PoPs below 30%) sweeps through the region Saturday and
gives the sfc low to our east a ride off into the Atlantic.
Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick
hitting back door cold front moving in from the north allowing
Tds to briefly drop to the 60s.

Monday through Tuesday... Strong ridging brings clear skies and
temps getting progressively warmer through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 525 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR flight cats expected through
the rest of the day today. However, isolated showers and
thunderstorms late today could bring brief sub-VFR conditions
through 00Z this evening. Clear skies and calm winds will bring
good radiational cooling conditions but ensemble based guidance
continue to show low probs for fog tonight. Given recent model
performance, have opted to lean more pessimistic and introduced
prevailing MVFR VIS for coastal TAF sites with shorter duration
TEMPO groups for the inland TAF sites where chances are lower.
Wed is expected to be dry with light winds and continued VFR
conditions.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure dominating Wednesday night-
Thursday will bring a period of calm winds and clear/mostly
clear skies through Thursday night. This increases the
potential for sub-VFR conditions due to fog, particularly during
the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 910 PM Tuesday...A cold front remains stalled around
80-100 mi offshore while a trough of low pressure remains across
the central piedmont. Good boating conditions will continue
through the short term with mainly easterly winds generally less
than 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. NEerly flow early WED 10-15kt
becoming more onshore as seabreeze takes over in the afternoon.
Seas build slightly to 2-4ft with wind chop on top of Serly
6-7sec swell.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Long term starts off benign, with waves
2-3 ft and easterly winds generally gusting below 15 kts through
Thursday. Friday through the weekend we have a lot of
uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low
developing off the SE coast over the next 24 hours progresses.
Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through
Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our nearshore waters
or strengthens substantially, but confidence remains too low at
this point. Early next week pleasant boating conditions return,
with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high
pressure dominates.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...JME/CEB/RJ
MARINE...JME/CEB/RJ