641
FXUS63 KMKX 060824
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today, with gusts to 35 MPH. Continued breezy tomorrow
  and Saturday, but with gusts closer to 20-25 MPH.

- Spotty showers this afternoon and early evening, especially
  north and east of a line from Milwaukee to the Dells.

- Additional rain chances on Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today through Friday:

Brisk west to northwest winds are expected across the region
today, helping to bring in a cooler and drier airmass. Cyclonic
flow and cold temperatures aloft will support the development of
a widespread stratocu deck this afternoon, with cloud cover
increasing further north and east. Spotty rain showers are
expected from these clouds this afternoon and early evening,
with the best chances north and east of a line from Milwaukee to
the Dells, where mid level moisture will be more robust. These
showers could also have some enhanced winds with them, as
stronger momentum is mixed down. Even outside of the showers,
look for winds to gust as high as 35 MPH at times. Gusts and
shower chances should diminish fairly rapidly with sunset.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side compared to the last
several days, with highs in the mid to upper 60s to around 70,
with the cooler readings across the north where clouds will be
more widespread.

Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s, with clearing
skies. Winds should say high enough to largely mitigate the fog
threat, but given the considerable amount of ground moisture,
patchy fog development is certainly possible in any location
that is well sheltered from the wind.

A similar pattern continues for Friday, though overall it will
be a less windy, less cloudy, and slightly warmer day, with
highs in the low 70s.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

A warm front over the central Plains will lift northward toward
(though not into) the region late Friday and early Saturday,
with strong warm advection over the top of this frontal zone
producing another round of rainfall across the region Saturday
morning and early afternoon. Robust frontogenesis may support a
band of higher rainfall rates/totals, though placement is hard
to nail down at this distance.

Another front will drop southward into the area on Sunday, with
colder temperatures aloft again supporting a few showers during
the afternoon hours.

High pressure is expected to move through the area on Monday,
with southwesterly return flow developing for Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will bring renewed chances for rain and a few
thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures and increased
humidity.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. West
winds will become quite gusty today, with frequent gusts between
25 and 30 knots this afternoon. A high based stratocu deck is
expected to develop buy this afternoon, with spotty rain
showers developing. These will be most likely for Milwaukee,
Waukesha, and Sheboygan. Some higher wind gusts are possible
with the showers.

Showers, cloud cover and winds will gradually diminish/weaken
this evening with sunset.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Gusty west winds are expected for the next several days, as low
pressure very slowly translates eastward across northern
Ontario. Winds will be strongest today, with a very gradual
reduction in speed through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the nearshore waters from this morning through mid
evening. Another Advisory may be needed for tomorrow.

Winds then are expected to turn more northerly on Sunday, as
another cold front sweeps through the region. High pressure will
move through on Monday, with winds taking on a more southerly
direction on Tuesday.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM
     Thursday to 10 PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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