052
FXUS63 KMKX 020255
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
955 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect from 12-9 AM CDT for south
  central WI.

- An active, summer-like pattern prevails through early week,
  with warm/muggy conditions and multiple rounds of showers and
  storms expected.

- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern
  Wisconsin through the second half of the upcoming week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for south central WI as a break up
in clouds will aid in radiational fog especially after plenty of
rainfall earlier today. More stratus and slightly less fog may
prevail for ern WI, but it`s certainly possible dense fog will
develop as well. Strong solar radiation and dry air above the
sfc layer should allow a dissipation of fog and stratus by
14-16Z Sunday. High pressure and pleasant summer temps will then
take hold for the afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A busy pattern prevails early this afternoon
across the Upper Midwest. Apparent in satellite imagery and
objective analyses from the RAP, a shortwave trough continues to
advance east into the Ohio Valley. A combination of DPVA tied to the
feature, 700 mb WAA, and low level moisture fetch from the Gulf of
Mexico have supported steady rain showers through the majority of
today, with a number of stations along/west of I-39 reporting
between 0.50-1.00"+ of rainfall as of 3:30 PM. Said rainfall will
shift east of the area with its related forcing this evening, giving
way to dry conditions through Sunday. Still under the influence of
high pressure currently centered over the mid-Atlantic states, light
to calm surface winds will prevail through the overnight hours
tonight. Said winds will combine with a moist boundary layer to
support areas of fog moving deeper into the overnight hours, with
some dense fog possible. A shortwave trough will eject into the
Northern Plains on Sunday afternoon, kicking off several clusters of
convection to our west during the afternoon hours. Said storms will
move into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday night, approaching the
Wisconsin River Valley in a decaying state nearing sunrise Monday
morning & the conclusion of the short term period.

Tonight: Expect areas of fog to develop across the region after
sunset. Dense fog is possible, particularly in locations
experiencing partial clearing & affiliated surface cooling.
Uncertainty regarding the placement & coverage of dense fog has
precluded the issuance of any Dense Fog Advisories in the afternoon
update, though trends will be monitored closely through the evening
and overnight hours. Should an organized & persistent dense fog
threat materialize, Dense Fog Advisories may become necessary. Be
sure to slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra
following distance if encountering areas of dense fog on area roads
tonight.

Sunday Night: Convection developing over the Northern Plains Sunday
afternoon will approach Wisconsin River zones during the predawn
hours. Expect that said convection will be well into its decaying
phase as it draws near. Have maintained PoPs primarily along/west of
I-39 between 1 AM and 7 AM Monday morning given this potential.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Synopsis: An MCV tied to Sunday night`s convection will cross
southern Wisconsin during the day on Monday, with some potential for
shower/storm redevelopment existing along & ahead of the feature
from late morning through the afternoon. A more organized upper
trough will eject into Northern Plains on Tuesday, encouraging
surface cyclogenesis along the international border. The surface
flow will progress east during the evening and overnight hours,
dragging a cold front across the state in the process. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along & ahead of the boundary, with
considerable uncertainties regarding FROPA timing remaining as of
this forecast package. Additional, wraparound shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible on Wednesday with the core of
the upper trough passing across southern Wisconsin. Post-frontal,
west-northwest surface winds will prevail through the second half of
the week, allowing a cooler/drier Canadian air mass to become
entrenched across the region.

Monday: What`s left of the decaying Northern Plains convection will
push in during the morning hours. How far east this activity holds
together is uncertain, with a wide range of solutions apparent in
the global & available mesoscale guidance suite. Should weakening
occur quickly as implied in some solutions, additional shower &
storm development would be possible along the leading edge of an
affiliated MCV from late morning through the afternoon hours. Given
the high amount of spread in model solutions/uncertainty regarding
re-development of storms, it remains too early to offer additional
details regarding strong/severe potential Monday afternoon.

Tuesday Afternoon Through Tuesday Night: The cold front affiliated
with the upper disturbance ejecting into the Northern Plains is
progged to cross the region during this portion of the period,
supporting additional chances for showers and storms. Coverage of
storms, as well as their strength, will depend on the timing of the
cold frontal passage. Considerable FROPA timing differences remain
in available guidance, with some solutions as much as 6-12 hours
apart from one another on arrival time of the boundary. Trends will
continue to be monitored, with additional forecast details being
introduced as cold frontal arrival time becomes more clear.

Remainder Of Period: With the core of the upper trough over the
state, additional wraparound showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday. Winds will turn northwest through the end of the week,
allowing cooler and drier Canadian air to work into southern
Wisconsin. Off & on rain chances will continue into next weekend.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Dense fog and low stratus (Cigs below 1 kft) is expected to
develop or expand over srn WI tnt and dissipate by 14-16Z Sun
with VFR conditions for Sunday afternoon and evening.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Areas of dense fog will occur at times for the south half of the
lake tonight into Sunday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect into Sunday morning. Winds will remain light and variable
through Sunday night as weak high pressure moves across Lake
Michigan Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will then turn out of
the south late Sunday night into Monday as a 29.5 inch low
pressure area tracks from the northern Great Plains into Canada.
Southerly winds will continue through Tuesday night as a second
area of a 29.3 inch low pressure forms over central Canada. A
cold front will cross the open waters on Wednesday, resulting in a
west to northwest wind shift through the second half of the
upcoming week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
from Monday through Wednesday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-
     WIZ067-WIZ068 until 9 AM Sunday.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-
     LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
     LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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