943
FXUS63 KMKX 242028
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More lines of thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening
  but the severe storm risk is small.

- Another round of widespread showers and storms on Sunday with
  at least a small potential for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

The lines of storms over ern IA into sw WI are aligned with
sfc-850 mb frontogenesis which will shift ewd late this
afternoon and evening. Given the lack of meaningful MLCAPE and
very high MLCIN, expect these storms to remain elevated. Thus
large hail would be the main threat with these storms, but
heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible over sw
WI.

Nwly winds and cold advection will then drop temps into the
middle 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Sat. High pressure will then
shift across the state on Sat with temps rebounding into the
lower 70s for the afternoon.

Another round of strong cyclogenesis is then expected Sun as an
amplifying shortwave trough approaches from the central Great
Plains. The 992 mb sfc low will track from sw WI to east central
WI with widespread showers and storms for srn WI. There is
uncertainty with the degree of sfc based CAPE and convection for
Sun but strong lift and shear would support a SVR risk
especially over se WI.


Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Monday through Friday:

A couple shortwave troughs within nwly flow aloft will then
affect srn WI for Mon-Tue with chances for showers and storms.
High amplitude ridging will then try to shift ewd into the Upper
MS River Valley and wrn Great Lakes late in the week. This will
bring a warming trend and drier wx.


Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Rounds of showers and storms will continue this afternoon and
evening. Areas of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys may briefly occur in the
wake of any of the stronger storms. Areas of MVFR Cigs are also
expected for a brief time along and after the passage of the
cold front this evening. Skies will then clear during the
overnight hours with VFR conditions into Wed.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Low pressure around 29.4 inches moving into northwest Minnesota
will track into far southeast Manitoba tonight. Its cold front
will progress eastward across Lake Michigan late tonight. Thus
modest east to southeast winds this afternoon and evening will
shift westerly late tonight and continue into Saturday morning.
High pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across Lake
Michigan for Saturday afternoon and evening, before another low
pressure area around 29.4 inches approaches from the west and
moves across either central or northern Lake Michigan Sunday
night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the
lake tonight and once again Sunday and Sunday night.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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