784
FXUS63 KMKX 281513 CCA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1013 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers & storms are still expected this afternoon.
  Widespread severe weather is unlikely, although an isolated
  stronger storm with hail and gusty winds is possible.

- Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the
  end of the week. Friday night will be the next chance for
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 957 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Forecast remains largely on track as of mid-morning. Continue to
expect shower and storm development moving into the afternoon
hours as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Early morning
water vapor imagery places the core of the trough over the
Duluth-Superior vicinity, with the feature tracking southeast
through this evening. ACARS soundings from Duluth and
Minneapolis-Saint Paul are well positioned beneath the upper
wave, and are currently sampling mid-level lapse rates between
7-7.5 degC/km. A combination of daytime heating/steepening
boundary layer lapse rates, in addition to the aforementioned mid-
level thermo overspreading the area, will support some potential
for hail and gusty downdraft winds. Anticipate that the majority
of any hail & gusty winds will remain below severe limits, though
an isolated severe hail stone or wind gust can`t be completely
ruled out. SPC continues to carry a marginal (level 1/5) risk of
severe weather across the region this afternoon in light of this
potential. Will monitor trends as activity begins to develop later
today.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Today through Tonight:

Showers will slide out over the next few hours bringing a period
of drier conditions into the mid morning hours. Models are
largely in agreement that the region will see scattered showers
and storms (45-60%% chances) as another shortwave slides
southeast from central Canada into the western Great Lakes
region. The scattered shower activity will likely (80%) begin
late this morning and persisting through at least part of the
evening hours, with the best storm chances (30%) during the
afternoon hours. With regard to storm chances, stronger storms
are not expected due to a lack of shear but due to decent lapse
rates from cooler conditions aloft we could see instability as
high as 1000 J/kg. Thus we cannot rule out some taller storms
capable of producing some hail and/or gusty winds, especially if
we can get some decent sunshine in the morning. Storms will
likely end by the early evening hours as any diurnal heating
ends. Precip will gradually dissipate into the evening as the
surface high begins nudging in as with the upper ridge.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

By Wednesday we will finally return to drier conditions with
higher pressure sliding in with ridging building in aloft.
Through at least Friday we expect to remain dry though models
have shifted fairly significantly over the last 24hrs regarding
precip potential into the weekend. Yesterday models trended
drier through Saturday but the latest models now suggest
precipitation is more likely expected by Friday night into
Saturday. Given the last models changes it could be presumed
that more changes remain possible. This looks largely related to
some UL shortwave energy injected into the otherwise large scale
ridging aloft. Models currently suggest this would be largely
rain with not much instability to work with.

Then by Sunday we should see another system push in as the UL
ridge slides out with the surface high. We will have to watch
the timing of this system as there is at least some risk for
some severe storms. In addition Monday will see a similar
scenario with more storms expected though it looks like better
timing. In either scenario instability looks plenty but shear is
somewhat lacking so that is something that lowers the severe
potential.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 957 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all southern
Wisconsin terminals. An upper disturbance will cross the region
this afternoon, combining with heating of the day to support
scattered to numerous TSRA through early evening. Have continued
to carry TEMPO groups at all aerodromes in the 15Z update given
this potential, and will refine with prevailing mentions as
trends warrant through early afternoon. Convection will weaken
this evening as temps begin to cool and the upper disturbance
pushes east of the area. Variable surface winds and scattered
mid-upper clouds will prevail through the remainder of the
period with high pressure settling in over the Northern Plains.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Low pressure over central Ontario will continue to slide
northeast as high pressure inches nudges into north central US.
Breezy northwest winds will diminish slightly, but remain
elevated through this evening as the high slides toward the
western Great Lakes. West to northwest flow will shift to
northerly with winds gradually weakening over time as the high
pressure builds into the region on Wednesday. The high will
hold strong into the early weekend with light to modest north
winds from Wednesday through at least Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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