556
FXUS62 KMLB 091940
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

-Shower and storm coverage increases tomorrow, with a few
 stronger storms possible into the afternoon and evening.

-Hot conditions continue tomorrow, with near record highs and
 heat index values in the 102 to 107 range.

-Higher shower and storm chances from Tuesday through late week,
 with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and localized flooding
 possible.

Currently-Tonight...Drier air across Lake and Volusia counties
should keep these areas rain-free through the remainder of the
afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers and storms farther
south, mainly near to south of a line from Orlando to the Cape.
However, greatest potential for storms will be with sea/lake breeze
boundary collisions toward Lake Okeechobee and inland across Osceola
and Okeechobee counties toward late afternoon and sunset. While
temps are warmer aloft (-4 to -5C at 500mb), dry air in the mid
levels could still lead to isolated strong storms, producing
frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40-50 mph. It will
remain quite hot through late afternoon, and a Heat Advisory
continues through 6 PM, for Orange, Osceola and Okeechobee counties,
as well as mainland Brevard County and inland portions of Indian
River and St. Lucie counties. Peak heat index values up to 108 to
110 are still possible across this region, with values closer to
around 102-107 elsewhere across east central Florida.

Showers and storms south of Orlando diminish in coverage through the
evening, with rain chances ending by midnight. Skies will be partly
cloudy and temps will remain mild in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday...Ridge aloft across the area shifts south to
southeast into tomorrow, as trough presses southward over the far
eastern United States. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary
shifts southward toward north FL by late Monday and stalls north of
central Florida through early this week, keeping subtropical ridge
axis south of the state. This leads to a deeper W/SW flow across the
region, pulling deep tropical moisture northeastward, which will
increase shower and storm chances through early this week. PW values
rise to around 1.8-2.0" on Monday and up to 2.2-2.4" on Tuesday.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms into Monday afternoon and
evening, will become numerous to widespread on Tuesday, with PoPs
climbing from 50-70 percent across much of the area on Monday to 70-
80 percent on Tuesday. Localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding
will be possible with any repeated rounds of heavier downpours.

It will be another hot day tomorrow, with near record highs on
Monday. Max temps reach the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid
to upper 90s over the interior. Heat index values will generally
range from around 102-107, just below Heat Advisory criteria.
Increasing rainfall and cloudiness into Tuesday will allow temps to
drop to near to slightly below normal values in the mid 80s to low
90s. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Significant rain
chances become established mid to late week as tropical moisture
anchors across the FL peninsula. This moisture will push daily PWs
toward climatological maximums. The threat for heavy rainfall and
localized flooding goes up as a result, and the Weather Prediction
Center has placed much of the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Successive rounds of
moderate to heavy rain and isolated storms will be maximized during
the daytime hours but could also linger through the nighttime hours.
With time for the forecast to be further refined, the current Wed-
Sat QPF places a wide swath of 3" to 5" over central FL with locally
higher amounts possible. If realized, this would certainly help the
present drought conditions. Afternoon highs will be limited to the
80s with the coolest days being Thursday and Friday. South-
southeasterly winds may also turn breezy Friday into Saturday as low-
level winds increase. Model guidance is in less agreement toward the
latter half of the weekend, but some flavor of rain chances may
linger into Sunday as well. Overall, it is shaping up to be a rather
wet stretch of days, from Wednesday onward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight...Southeasterly winds veer south into this evening and
increase up to 15-20 knots offshore. Small craft should exercise
caution if venturing into the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard
counties tonight. Winds gradually diminish overnight to 10 to 15
knots as they continue to veer to the west to southwest. Seas will
range from 1-3 feet.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) Increasing moisture,
especially from Tuesday onward, will lead to higher rain and
isolated storm chances into mid week. On Monday, W/SW winds back to
the SSE behind the sea breeze, increasing and veering SSW again
Monday night (especially over the Gulf Stream). More persistent SSW
flow on Tuesday will back to the SSE by Wednesday and Thursday.
Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected mid to
late week. Boating conditions deteriorate due to high rain and storm
chances, though seas outside of storms will generally remain 2-3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Continued fire sensitive conditions continue Monday, as near record
heat continues and allows Min RH values to fall into the upper 30s
to low 40s, mainly across Lake and Volusia counties into the
afternoon. A gradual improvement to fire weather conditions is
expected then from Tuesday onward as moisture and subsequent rain
chances significantly increase. However, lightning strikes may lead
to additional fire starts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Record high temperatures (including last year set) for today,
June 9th:

Daytona Beach   98 1981
Leesburg        98 1985
Sanford         99 2006
Orlando        100 1907
Melbourne       97 1941
Vero Beach      94 1994
Fort Pierce     96 1980

Record high temperatures (including last year set) for Monday,
June 10th:

Daytona Beach  100 1981
Leesburg        96 2007
Sanford         99 1985
Orlando         99 1907
Melbourne       96 1981
Vero Beach      95 2007
Fort Pierce     97 1948

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Curtailed VCTS to only the Treasure Coast terminals (VRB/FPR/SUA)
late this afternoon and early evening as ample dry air aloft will
stifle convective development over the Greater Orlando area today.
Near the coast, winds become ESE 5-12 KT through early evening with
WSW winds 5-10 KT over Greater Orlando. VFR prevails outside of
any isolated thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  97  74  90 /  10  40  40  70
MCO  76  95  75  87 /  10  50  50  80
MLB  75  94  74  89 /  20  70  60  80
VRB  75  94  73  89 /  30  70  60  80
LEE  75  96  76  91 /   0  40  40  70
SFB  75  97  76  90 /  10  50  40  70
ORL  77  97  76  89 /  10  50  50  70
FPR  74  94  73  88 /  30  70  60  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ045-053-058-247-
     254-259-347-547-647.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil