500
FXUS62 KMLB 081711
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
111 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR persists outside of convection through the afternoon and
evening. A few storms develop this afternoon between 19Z-02Z.
Highest coverage (30-50%) for the Treasure Coast terminals, with
lesser confidence at MCO/Greater Orlando area (20-40%). TS TEMPOs
necessary for Treasure Coast. Sea breeze already advancing from
MLB to SUA, with ESE winds near the coastline. Greater Orlando
will be more VRB or SW, 5-10 KT.

There is a signal for patchy fog overnight, however with only a
20-30% chance of formation, have opted to keep out of TAFs and
monitor latest guidance for future packages.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Update...A bit of an earlier start to showers and thunderstorms
mainly across Southwest FL, although earlier a few cells in Palm
Beach County were drifting closer to Martin County, prompting an
update to PoPs, which have since dissipated. This early morning
activity coincides with the presence of very moist air, with PW
values surging over 2.00" south of Lake Okeechobee. A tight gradient
is in place across the state, however, with values falling
significantly just across the FL/GA border to near 0.70". This drier
air is forecast to filter southward today which will aim to curb
rain chances for areas north of I-4 this afternoon, but will also
aid in temperatures climbing to near record values for these areas.
Have maintained PoPs of 30% for the north, increasing southward to
60% in the vicinity of Lake O, due to the adequate moisture and also
sea/lake breeze interactions today. Temps at 500 mb warmed 3 degrees
to -6C compared to this time yesterday, suggesting that storms today
may not be as strong, although the potential for gusty winds is
still present with DCAPE of 1000J/kg. Frequent lightning strikes,
heavy rain and gusty winds will be the threats this afternoon,
mainly for the Kissimmee River basin towards Jupiter Inlet.

Nearly all climate sites have record highs at risk today, especially
for Orlando, Sanford and Leesburg, where the cooling effects of the
sea breeze and afternoon storms may escape. Temps will approach very
near to 100 degrees across the interior, with heat index readings
soaring towards 105-107F. Therefore, today`s HeatRisk is moderate to
major, meaning this level of heat can affect anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. If outdoors, take
frequent breaks from the sun in shaded or air conditioned spaces and
remain well hydrated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions outside of isolated
storms are forecast with 1-2 ft seas and early W winds backing SE
in the afternoon. Speeds increase to around 15 kt this evening
and tonight before decreasing by sunrise Sunday. Isolated showers
and lightning storms will tend to be focused from Cape Canaveral
southward, where slightly greater moisture is present.

Sunday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with
winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening
behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are
expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning
storms increases from Monday-Tuesday onward. Seas 2-3 ft, except
where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  97  74  97 /  20  20   0  40
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  30  30  10  50
MLB  75  93  76  94 /  30  40  20  60
VRB  74  93  75  95 /  30  50  30  70
LEE  76  97  76  96 /  10  10   0  40
SFB  75  98  75  98 /  30  20   0  50
ORL  77  97  76  97 /  30  30  10  50
FPR  73  93  74  94 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil