Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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046 FXUS62 KMLB 081931 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...A stormy afternoon along the sea breeze has initiated just beyond the borders of the forecast area, with a complex of convection bubbling up over coastal Palm Beach County. Storms are expected to zipper north into Martin County over the next couple of hours, eventually drifting closer to Lake Okeechobee by later in the day. Additional isolated activity has sparked west of the Kissimmee River and Lake O which should impact areas south of Orlando soon. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will be the main impacts with today`s activity, but gusty downdrafts will also be possible in any storms that develop, giving a quick burst of 40-50 mph winds. Trekking northward, available moisture drops off rather significantly, falling from 1.80" PW over the Treasure Coast to 1.50" in Lake County. As a result, coverage of showers and storms will be much more limited for areas north and west of I-4 through the evening. Hot temperatures will be the other focus this afternoon, with several locations already rising to the mid 90s. Record highs will be threatened especially near and north of Orlando and anywhere that doesn`t receive cooling rainfall within the next few hours. Heat index readings are already above 100F for most reporting sites, and may climb a couple more degrees before day`s end. Low temperatures tonight will fall to the low 70s away from urban areas which will only drop to the upper 70s. Humidity of 100% tonight and light winds will offer the potential for patchy fog development just before daybreak, which is most favored over Lake County and also surrounding Lake O. Sunday-Monday...Sunday will have nearly a copy-paste forecast compared to today, with the focus for storm chances across south FL which may seep northward near the Lake. Showers and storms will initialize along the sea breeze boundary and become enhanced by boundary interactions, bringing the typical summertime storm threats. Notably, drier air holds on to the northern forecast area, completely erasing PoPs out of northern Lake and Volusia counties. Monday becomes the (hopefully) transitional day out of the dry pattern, as moisture advects northward out of the southern Gulf and Caribbean, bringing at least a chance for showers and storms to the entire area, again much higher for southern locations. Rainfall totals on Monday will approach a half inch, which will be welcomed in ongoing Severe Drought conditions. Shifting the sights to the temperature forecast, Sunday and Monday will both threaten record highs with afternoon temps reaching the mid to upper 90s areawide. While slightly drier air remains in place over northern portions of the area on Sunday, higher dewpoints may necessitate a Heat Advisory one or both days for at least the Treasure Coast counties, as heat index readings rise above 107-108F. Tuesday-Saturday...(previous) At this point in the forecast, rain chances increase areawide. Synoptically, stout mid level ridging unfolds across the southwestern U.S. as the northern stream gets cut off from the central and southern states. Surface high pressure settles in over the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Tuesday into Wednesday as a cool front pushes into north Florida. This front becomes modified and stalls across north FL, thanks to southerly WAA. As a lobe of mid level energy approaches the central Gulf Coast Wednesday into Thursday, tropical moisture and shortwave energy is advertised to rotate northward from the Yucatan and western Cuba. All of this combined will result in waves of rain and lightning storms, with coverage maximized during the daytime. Model differences still remain in regard to the placement of the highest rain totals, with a large spread from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to south- central Florida. Among global models, the GFS, CMC, and EC- AIFS are situated farther east, encompassing much of the peninsula in 1-4"+ of accumulated rainfall, while the ECMWF and ICON place the heaviest rains over the Gulf and Florida Panhandle. Any rain, but especially the higher end amounts, would benefit the current drought conditions. Overall, expect an increasingly unsettled weather pattern from Tuesday onward. Details on day-to-day storm chances and QPF will become clearer late this weekend into Monday. Another benefit to increasing rain chances is the associated cloud cover and lower daytime temperatures. Highs in the low to mid 90s Tuesday are forecast to drop back into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday-Friday. Overnight lows stay rather mild, however, in the 70s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist outside of convection with light offshore winds becoming southeast 10-15 knots in the afternoon with seas 2 ft. Most likely area for lightning storms will be south of Sebastian Inlet today and tomorrow. Monday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning storms increases each day through the period. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today-Monday...Fire sensitive conditions will continue over the next couple of days as abnormally hot temperatures combine with lower dewpoints as well antecedent dry soil. Sensitivity will be enhanced by the daily threat for lightning storms, driven by the sea and lake breeze interactions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR persists outside of convection through the afternoon and evening. A few storms develop this afternoon between 19Z-02Z. Highest coverage (30-50%) for the Treasure Coast terminals, with lesser confidence at MCO/Greater Orlando area (20-40%). TS TEMPOs necessary for Treasure Coast. Sea breeze already advancing from MLB to SUA, with ESE winds near the coastline. Greater Orlando will be more VRB or SW, 5-10 KT. There is a signal for patchy fog overnight, however with only a 20-30% chance of formation, have opted to keep out of TAFs and monitor latest guidance for future packages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 97 74 97 / 20 20 0 40 MCO 76 97 76 96 / 30 30 10 50 MLB 75 93 76 94 / 30 40 20 60 VRB 74 93 75 95 / 30 50 30 70 LEE 76 97 76 96 / 10 10 0 40 SFB 75 98 75 98 / 30 20 0 50 ORL 77 97 76 97 / 30 30 10 50 FPR 73 93 74 94 / 20 50 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Heil