Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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545 FXUS62 KMLB 081409 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, CLIMATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Update...A bit of an earlier start to showers and thunderstorms mainly across Southwest FL, although earlier a few cells in Palm Beach County were drifting closer to Martin County, prompting an update to PoPs, which have since dissipated. This early morning activity coincides with the presence of very moist air, with PW values surging over 2.00" south of Lake Okeechobee. A tight gradient is in place across the state, however, with values falling significantly just across the FL/GA border to near 0.70". This drier air is forecast to filter southward today which will aim to curb rain chances for areas north of I-4 this afternoon, but will also aid in temperatures climbing to near record values for these areas. Have maintained PoPs of 30% for the north, increasing southward to 60% in the vicinity of Lake O, due to the adequate moisture and also sea/lake breeze interactions today. Temps at 500 mb warmed 3 degrees to -6C compared to this time yesterday, suggesting that storms today may not be as strong, although the potential for gusty winds is still present with DCAPE of 1000J/kg. Frequent lightning strikes, heavy rain and gusty winds will be the threats this afternoon, mainly for the Kissimmee River basin towards Jupiter Inlet. Nearly all climate sites have record highs at risk today, especially for Orlando, Sanford and Leesburg, where the cooling effects of the sea breeze and afternoon storms may escape. Temps will approach very near to 100 degrees across the interior, with heat index readings soaring towards 105-107F. Therefore, today`s HeatRisk is moderate to major, meaning this level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. If outdoors, take frequent breaks from the sun in shaded or air conditioned spaces and remain well hydrated. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 High Temperature Records for June 8 DAB 99 1985 LEE 96 1985 SFB 97 1985 MCO 99 1985 MLB 97 1980 VRB 95 1995 FPR 95 1949 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions prevail outside of convection through the TAF package. TSRA/SHRA has developed a little ahead of schedule in SOFL, and will need to monitor if this activity pushes north into ECFL. Short-fused AMDs for VC timing and possibly even TEMPOs may be needed. Added VCSH to KSUA at the start of the 12Z TAF and continue a northward progression of VCTS starting 16Z at KSUA and 20Z at KMLB. VCTS at inland terminals ~21Z. Clearing out by 03Z. All that said, TSRA should be ISO to SCT at best so not committing to TEMPOs with the 12Z package. Light SW-W winds will once again favor the WCSB, reaching KLEE ~19Z and KISM/KMCO/KSFB ~22Z, increasing W winds to 10-15 kts. Delayed ECSB reaches the coastal terminals between 16Z-20Z, earlier to the south and later to the north, shifting winds ESE- SE 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts. ECSB/WCSB collision expected just west of the I-95 corridor ~22Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions outside of isolated storms are forecast with 1-2 ft seas and early W winds backing SE in the afternoon. Speeds increase to around 15 kt this evening and tonight before decreasing by sunrise Sunday. Isolated showers and lightning storms will tend to be focused from Cape Canaveral southward, where slightly greater moisture is present. Sunday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning storms increases from Monday-Tuesday onward. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Above normal temperatures through the weekend and into early next week, along with persistent drought conditions and lower relative humidity values each afternoon, will lead to fire sensitive or near critical conditions. Fire concerns will be locally enhanced by the daily afternoon sea breezes and isolated to scattered lightning strikes. Moisture increases next week, leading to greater coverage of rain and lightning storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 75 97 74 / 30 20 20 10 MCO 97 77 96 76 / 50 20 30 10 MLB 93 76 93 76 / 50 30 40 20 VRB 94 74 93 76 / 50 30 40 20 LEE 97 76 97 76 / 40 10 20 0 SFB 97 76 97 76 / 50 20 30 0 ORL 97 77 96 77 / 50 20 30 0 FPR 93 74 93 75 / 50 30 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Haley