Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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546 FXUS62 KMLB 071424 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1024 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Update...Temperatures as of 10am already climbing to the low to mid 80s across east central Florida, setting up for what will certainly be another abnormally warm day. A few sites may flirt with record highs especially for locations across the interior, but this will be dependent on timing of thunderstorm activity and cooling rain effects. Another active stormy afternoon is forecast once again today, although parameters suggest a lower hail and wind threat than yesterday. Still, frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out in any storms that develop, along with a brief spin up with multiple boundary collisions. Today, the focus for activity will be just west of I-95, with storms pushing towards the coast through sunset. Have increased PoPs to likely over a larger area in the update which will mainly occur between 3pm and 8pm today. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VCTS starting 20Z-21Z and running through 02Z-03Z for ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA INVOF all ECFL terminals. Enough consistency the last few model runs to justify TEMPOs for TSRA impacts 21Z-23Z at the Orlando area terminals and 22Z-24Z at KDAB-KTIX. CIGs expected to remain VFR, with heavy rain and gusty winds the primary impacts. Light SW-W winds once again favor the WCSB, forecast to reach KLEE ~18Z, and KMCO/KISM ~20Z if TSRA doesn`t develop first, increasing winds to ~10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals ~16Z to the south and ~20Z to the north, shifting winds to E-SE 10-15 kts. Winds become light/VRB after 02Z Friday night, and remain light into much of Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of isolated showers and lightning storms. Winds back to the ESE as the east coast breeze increases to around 10-15 kt. Seas generally 2 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of storms. Saturday-Tuesday...Lower rain chances this weekend and light surface winds are expected, prior to sea breeze development. In the afternoon SSE winds 10-15 kt behind the breeze. Winds increase up to 17 kt Sun. and Mon. night but remain around 15 kt or less during the day. Seas 2-3 ft. Rain and lightning storms increase in coverage next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 74 95 75 / 40 30 20 10 MCO 95 76 97 77 / 60 20 30 20 MLB 93 74 93 75 / 60 40 20 20 VRB 93 74 94 75 / 50 40 30 30 LEE 96 76 97 76 / 40 10 20 10 SFB 95 75 97 76 / 60 30 20 10 ORL 96 76 97 78 / 60 20 30 10 FPR 94 73 94 74 / 50 40 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Haley DSS...Volkmer